NFL Draft: Trading Future Early Picks Is a Bad Idea

Alphonso Smith (2009) for Earl Thomas (2010) TOO EARLY
Everette Brown and Mike Goodson (2009) for Mike Iupati (2010) TOO EARLY
Jeff Otah (2008) for Eric Wood (2009) plus Tyrell Johnson and Mike McGlynn (2008) TOO EARLY
Jacob Hester (2008) for Michael Mitchell (2009) and Josh Johnson (2008) DRAW
Joe Staley (2007) for Sedrick Ellis (2008) and John Bowie (2007) [NE eventually traded for Jerod Mayo pick] LOSS
Brady Quinn (2007) for Kevin Kolb (2007) and Felix Jones (2008) [DAL traded Kolb pick for Anthony Spencer] BAD LOSS
Tony Ugoh (2007) for Kentwan Balmer (2008) and Dashon Goldson (2007) LOSS
Rocky McIntosh (2006) for Anthony Fasano (2006), Drew Coleman (2006), and Eric Weddle (2007) LOSS
Jason Campbell (2005) for Karl Paymah (2005), Manny Lawson (2006), and Brandon Marshall (2006) LOSS
Eli Manning (2004) for Philip Rivers (2004), Shawne Merriman (2005), Nate Kaeding (2004), and Jerome Collins (2005) LOSS
JP Losman (2004) for Marcus Spears (2005), Julius Jones (2004), and Sean Ryan (2004) BAD LOSS
Chris Cooley (2004) and Mark Wilson (2004) for Josh Bullocks (2005) and Rodney Leisle (2004) GOOD WIN
Kyle Boller (2003) for Vince Wilfork (2004) and Ben Joppru (2003) BAD LOSS
Wade Smith (2003) for Madieu Williams (2004) [NE traded Williams pick for Corey Dillon] LOSS
Michael Vick (2001) for LaDainian Tomlinson (2001), Reche Caldwell (2002), Tay Cody (2001), and Tim Dwight LOSS
Morlon Greenwood (2001) and Otis Leverette (2001) for Sheldon Brown (2002) LOSS
Ricky Williams (1999) for Cade McNown (1999), Lavar Arrington (2000), D’Wayne Bates (1999), Desmond Clark (1999), Nate Stimson (1999), Khari Samuel (1999), Billy Miller (1999), and Lloyd Harrison (2000) [Washington traded the McNown pick as part of package to get Champ Bailey] LOSS
Reggie Kelly (1999) for Jamal Lewis (2000) BAD LOSS
Mikhael Ricks (1998) for John Abraham (2000) BAD LOSS
Patrick Surtain (1998) for Rashard Anderson (2000) GOOD WIN
Ryan Leaf (1998) for Andre Wadsworth (1998), Corey Chavous (1998), and David Boston (1999) LOSS
Bryan Still (1996) for Reidel Anthony (1997) DRAW
Terrell Fletcher (1995) for Pete Kendall (1996) BAD LOSS
J.J. Stokes (1995) for Craig Powell (1995), Mike Frederick (1995), Dave Barr (1995), and Ray Lewis (1996) BAD, BAD, LEROY BROWN LOSS

I count 2 Good Wins to 5 Draws/Too Early, 10 Losses, and 7 Bad Losses. So basically, out of the last 24 trade-ups that involved a future first or second round pick, only two could have been qualified as a success in retrospect. That’s a bad hit rate.