The span of our 2013 NFL mock drafts: May of 2012, then we had one in late August, before the college football season. Around the middle of the college football season, in October, we did another mock. Then we did a 4th mock for the 2013 draft during Thanksgiving week. After the NFL regular season was over, we did a mock draft in January, when the non-playoff teams draft order was set. The last one was on February 27th, post-NFL combine. Reminder: this is what I think will happen, not what I would do. Last year I hit 24 of the 32 first round picks (eight direct). There seems to be far less certainty/tipping of hands this time around. If you see an *, it means I think the pick will be traded.
1. Kansas City Chiefs – Luke Joeckel, OL, Texas A&M
2. Jacksonville Jaguars – Eric Fisher, T, Central Michigan*
3. Oakland Raiders – Sharrif Floyd, DL, Florida
4. Philadelphia Eagles – Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah, DT
5. Detroit Lions – Dion Jordan, LB/DE, Oregon
Logic: I don’t think the Jags will wind up with Fisher – I think eventually, someone will cave on a trade. Which team? No idea. I can’t get a read on Chip Kelly at 4, and anyone who claims to, is lying. I think the Lions get their CB in the 2nd round, but can’t pass up the freak potential in Jordan.
6. Cleveland Browns – Ezekiel “Ziggy” Ansah, DE, BYU*
7. Arizona Cardinals – Lane Johnson, G, Oklahoma
8. Buffalo Bills – Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia
9. New York Jets – Barkevious Mingo, LB, LSU
10. Tennessee Titans – Jonathan Cooper, G, North Carolina
Logic: Browns and Bills are tough reads, and the Jets at 9 are too, because they have so many needs. LB for Buffalo has been a popular idea for me since January, when the season was over. I just can’t fathom the Bills taking a QB (Nassib) 8th overall. Post-Combine I had Mingo falling to the Jets (before it became popular), and I’m sticking with it.
11. San Diego Chargers – Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
12. Miami Dolphins – Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama
13. Jets (via Tampa Bay) – Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame*
14. Carolina Panthers – Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia
15. New Orleans Saints – Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State
Logic: Milliner slides a bit, as I had him going 5th since January. I’d love the Jets to get Eifert, and it’s a need, but I’m not sure they’d pull the trigger on him, given their needs at safety (Vaccaro) and corner (Rhodes). Trading down wouldn’t surprise me (I actually advocate that), nor would drafting Austin. Is the trade asterisk by the Jets me hedging a bit? Who can tell.
16. St. Louis Rams – Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
17. Pittsburgh Steelers – Jarvis Jones, OLB/DE, Georgia
18. Dallas Cowboys – Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri
19. New York Giants – Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State
20. Chicago Bears – Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina
Logic: Patterson could be the offensive ROY, and Jones going to a smart team like the Steelers is scary. Richardson to Dallas seems like the only lock in this batch. Well, unless you count the Giants drafting a DE. And Cam Newton + Steve Smith + Tavon Austin = lookout.
21. Cincinnati Bengals – DJ Hayden, CB, Houston
22. Rams (via Washington) – Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas
23. Minnesota Vikings – DJ Fluker, OL, Alabama
24. Indianapolis Colts – Cornellius (Tank) Carradine, DE, Florida State
25. Vikings (via Seattle) – Manti Te’o, LB, Notre Dame
Logic: As many have noted, the Vikings love Irish players (have four) and the media there won’t give Manti much static about the fake girlfriend. So I caved and gave him to Minnesota. If he falls past the Vikings, everything out of Baltimore seems to say Te’o. Two DJs in a span of three picks? Sure, why not.
26. Green Bay Packers – Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia*
27. Houston Texans – Keenan Allen, WR, California
28. Denver Broncos – Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse*
29. New England Patriots – DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson
30. Atlanta Falcons – Johnathan Cyprien, S, FIU
31. San Francisco 49ers – Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee*
32. Baltimore Ravens – Kevin Minter, LB, LSU
Logic: No, I don’t think the Packers or Broncos take QBs. I do think both trade down to acquire more picks as two teams – Jacksonville and Buffalo? – move up to get the QB they didn’t want to grab early. I fully expect the Texans to take a receiver, and San Francisco (which grabbed one last year) too … if the 49ers don’t move. I do think the 49ers trade out of this spot. My shocker will be the 49ers giving up multiple picks to move up into the Top 15 of the draft for someone. Wouldn’t it be fun if they packaged a lot of picks to go up to 13 and get Tavon Austin? They’ve got so many picks, 75 percent of the picks may not even make the team.