SEC West 2013 Preview: Can Anyone Beat Alabama?
By Ty Duffy
The NCAA Tournament and the Draft are over. Now comes the long refractory period until football begins. We previewed the SEC East earlier. Here, we take a look at the vaunted SEC West.
Does Alabama have a weakness? Alabama have won three of the last four BCS titles. They are resounding favorites to make it four in five. The most pressing issue with this team is whether they have a weakness. We’ll begin with where they definitely do not. McCarron is coming back for his senior year at quarterback. T.J. Yeldon headlines what may be the best running back collection in the country. Amari Cooper (999 yards and 11 TD last year) is coming back for his (gasp) sophomore season. On defense, C.J. Mosley coming back is massive and gives them the nations’ best linebackers. The secondary, while not having an obvious successor to Kirkpatrick/Milliner, should be excellent too.
Concerns, though modest, are on the lines. On offense, they must replace Jones, Warmack and Fluker. Jones, the least talented of the three, was a four-year starter who won the Outland and Rimington trophies. Having Cyrus Kouandjio, among the best left tackles in the country, helps. So does getting to plug the other spots with Alabama recruits. They won’t be as excessive as last year, but it’s hard to see them being a liability. The defensive side loses Jesse Williams, Quinton Dial and Damion Square up front. That said, they have younger players who worked shifts last year and can be what Nick Saban wants from those positions in the 3-4: big, athletic and unheralded.
Even if they have questions, we must ask who will exploit them? Their toughest non-conference opponent is Virginia Tech. They play Kentucky and Tennessee from the East. Unlike every other team in the SEC West, they don’t have to play Alabama. Barring Texas A&M and LSU, they should win every regular season game with ease.
LSU lost two defensive tackles and almost every defensive end. They return Anthony Johnson, a probable first rounder at DT, for his junior season. The rest of the players are either unproven or have not arrived on campus yet. Johnson is the only returning lineman who had a sack last season. Even if they replace the starters, what was crucial for LSU last year was the depth.
The Tigers had players projected as All-Americans struggling to start. That depth allowed them to go full bore at teams for 60 minutes. What was an unrelenting wave of velociraptors for opponents could become manageable. That would place a greater onus on the offense. Mettenberger is coming back for his senior years. Like some of their running backs, but…uh…Les Miles.
The Aggies lose most of their front seven. Damontre Moore is the name, but it is not just him. A&M lose five of their top six tacklers from 2012 and their top four tacklers for loss. Their top returning pass rusher had two sacks last year. Ability, experience and depth could all be issues. Spring game assessment of the defense was…hey, look at the offense! Texas A&M’s defense has work to do to be average. Average won’t help them fulfill preseason expectations.
Let’s run through their first four FBS games: at Vanderbilt, at Texas, at Alabama, at Auburn. Time for back to back home games, right? Those are against Texas A&M and LSU. That’s four teams that could start the year ranked in the Top 15, before Halloween. They still have Arkansas, Missouri and the Egg Bowl on the road following that. This team could improve and not improve in the win-loss column. They may need to do so to stay level.
How competitive Auburn can bemay depend on the defense. The Tigers finished 94th vs. FBS in yards per play against last year. They lost their best player, Corey Lemonier. They are undergoing a scheme shift from a 4-3 to a 4-2-5 under Ellis Johnson. Much may depend on Justin Garrett’s ability to bed in at the “star” hybrid linebacker role. Whatever happens, we can’t wait for Auburn vs. Washington in Week 1.
Seven starters return from a defense that finished near the bottom of the SEC. The Razorbacks were decent against the run, only because teams had such a facile time torching them through the air. Arkansas was dead last in the SEC against the pass by pretty much every metric. Trey Flowers and Chris Smith both return on the defensive line, after combining for 15.5 sacks and 26 tackles for loss last season. That’s about the only reason for optimism.
It can’t possibly be worse than last year, you would think. Then you look at the schedule. Arkansas drew Florida and South Carolina from the East. Those two games are sandwiched between Texas A&M and Alabama. Not quite Indiana, Illinois and Purdue.
Mullen’s teams are well equipped, for any division not the SEC West. Outside, they slay non-conference opposition. They play competitively with the East. Inside, they have just two non Egg Bowl west wins in four years. Both came last year against the implosions that were Arkansas and Auburn.
The schedule gets much tougher this season. Jackson State becomes Oklahoma State. Tennessee at home turns into South Carolina away. Following that South Carolina game, they close the season at Texas A&M, Alabama, at Arkansas, Ole Miss. Even a solid 5-2 start by Mullen might see him heading into the Egg Bowl with his job at stake.
[Photos via USA Today Sports, Getty]