The 0-2 NFL Teams: Giants Should Have a Turnover Rebound, Keep an Eye on Steelers and Browns
By Jason Lisk
Last year, I whipped up a formula to find similar teams to those that started 0-2, and had the Saints as the most likely to rebound based on their poor defensive start. They did win more than any other team that started 0-2, still finishing at 7-9 at the end of the year.
I return with a similar formula, but also added an 8th category, offensive yards per pass. I then looked at the standard deviation among all 0-2 teams since 1990 in each category to come up with the scores in each. Thus, I could see just how extreme a -8 turnover margin is, compared to getting outrushed by an opponent by 200 combined yards in the first two games.
We know that since 1990, only 22 of 190 teams that started 0-2 reached the postseason (11.6%). While much is made of the 0-2 start, the truth is most of those teams would have failed to reach the postseason had they had their record magically changed to 2-0 in a bizarro world where the first two weeks saw losses awarded as wins. The 0-2 start was just a start to a bad season.
By looking at similar teams, though, we can see those that have a better chance to buck the trends and make a run, or at least get to respectability. In reverse order, here are the eight teams that have started with two losses, sorted by fewest to most future wins by the similar teams. Wins are weighted so that the most similar counts for more.
I’m going to make a prediction. We have not had a team start 0-2 and reach the postseason since 2008, when three teams did it (Miami, Minnesota, and San Diego). It will happen this year–though it won’t be the Jaguars.
#8 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (3.9 Wins, 1 playoff comparable in #10 1993 Pittsburgh)
Four of the teams won 2 or fewer games, and this Jaguars team is a lot more similar to the 1992 Seahawks horrible quarterback situation, or the dysfunction of the Jets in Rich Kotite’s last year.
#7 CAROLINA PANTHERS (4.9 Wins, 0 playoff comparables)
The three most similar teams to Carolina all won 7 games. I think that seems right, but certainly won’t be enough to save Ron Rivera’s job if another bad start means just missing the postseason again.
#6 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (5.2 Wins, 0 playoff comparables)
#5 WASHINGTON REDSKINS (6.0 Wins, 2 playoff comparables in #2 1998 Jets and #10 2007 Giants)
I looked at RG III and the Redskins struggles yesterday, and I believe the offense will get it going soon. Whether they will join those other 5-7 win teams or surge to a winning record depends on the defense figuring out how to hold teams under 30 points.
#4 MINNESOTA VIKINGS (6.5 Wins, 2 playoff comparables in #4 2002 Falcons and #9 1994 Patriots)
As a result, I don’t value Minnesota as highly as this projection going forward. Another crazy note, The Minnesota Vikings, despite reaching the playoffs last season, have now been an underdog in eleven straight games according to Chase Stuart. That should end this weekend, at home, against the next team on the list.
#3 CLEVELAND BROWNS (6.7 Wins, 3 playoff comparables in #3 2006 Chiefs, #5 1996 Patriots, and #7 1998 Bills)
What in the Sam Hill is going on here? Well, the similarity scores see a team that is not getting outrushed besides losing, not getting out gained, and holding teams with good defense. Cleveland is giving up only 2.0 yards per carry through the first two weeks. Add in that they get Josh Gordon, their best receiver, back from suspension, and top pick Barkevious Mingo has yet to play, and well, it is crazy, but if crazy happens . . .
#2 NEW YORK GIANTS (6.8 Wins, 2 playoff comparables in #6 1990 Oilers and #7 1993 Cowboys)
Of course, Emmitt Smith is not walking through that running back door, like he did after a holdout when the Cowboys started 0-2. The 1990 Oilers are a better comp, a team that had a pass heavy offense that had 10 turnovers in the first two games, which erased their strong edge in yards gained.
#1 PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7.9 Wins, 2 playoff comparables in #4 2001 Patriots and #8 2006 Chiefs)
So how surprising is it that the first four comparable teams to Pittsburgh won more than they lost for the rest of the year, and the first six all won at least half the remaining games? Pittsburgh’s comparables averaged a pretty incredible (for a group of teams that started 0-2) 7.9 wins the rest of the year.
[photos via USA Today Sports Images]