Saturday Syllabus: Championship Games And Cold Weather Big 12 Play
By Ty Duffy
SEC Championship Game… Being bullish about both teams in August meant you felt they’d reach bowl games. Now, Missouri and Auburn play for the SEC Championship and a potential BCS title game place. These schools had two conference wins in 2012, combined. David Cutcliffe may be a deserving Coach of the Year, winning 10 games at Duke, but Malzahn and Pinkel were a close second and third. Missouri was the dominant force from a weak SEC East. Auburn rode a late wave of magical (or fluke) wins.
These offenses create similar production. There’s a disparity with the defenses. Auburn gave up more than 500 total yards to Georgia. Alabama ran up nearly eight yards/play and got into the red zone six times against them (three trips produced no points). Being that porous, under normal circumstances, does not lead to week-in, week-out wins. Missouri is an aggressive Top 40 defense and first in the SEC with a +11 turnover margin. Auburn is also facing a potential body blow game and let down after Alabama. Will lightning strike a third time for them? We’re stepping off the bus. Pick: Missouri -1.5
This game should come down to two factors. Can the Spartans stop Ohio State’s read option attack? Braxton Miller and Carlos Hyde have been rolling over Big Ten opponents. The Spartans do have the best statistical rush defense in the nation. Though they conceded more than five yards/carry to Nebraska. Can Michigan State exploit Ohio State through the air? The Buckeyes have been vulnerable of late, most notably giving up 9.6 yards/attempt to Michigan. Connor Cook probably has to throw it 30-40 times efficiently under duress for Michigan State to win this. We don’t see it on a neutral site. Pick: Ohio State -5
Stanford has played three true road games not against Army. They lost two of them, against Utah and USC. The third was a narrow win over Oregon State. Not coincidentally, those were some of Kevin Hogan’s worst passing performances. ASU should put up enough yards on Stanford through the air at home to gut out a win. A Pac 12 title just in time for Todd Graham to get into the mix for the Texas job. Pick: Arizona State -3
ACC Championship Game… I suppose we technically must mention this. Duke won 10 games in a weak ACC. Florida State ranks No. 1 in yards/play offense and No. 2 in yards/play defense. One team finished within four touchdowns of them all sesaon. Jameis Winston will not be charged with sexual battery, removing any remaining intrigue. Roll Noles. Pick: Florida State -29.5
Bedlam… Another cold weather game, with a forecast of 21 degrees at kickoff in Stillwater. Oklahoma State is one win away from a Big 12 title. The Bob Stoops in a big maxim has never held water against the Cowboys, with Oklahoma winning nine of the last 10 in this series. The Sooners have gotten the run game going with Trevor Knight back at the helm. The weather, the rivalry and the Oklahoma pass defense will be enough to keep this within 10. Pick: Oklahoma +10
We went 5-5 last week. Our record on the season is 53-56-2.
[Photos via USA Today Sports]