Super Bowl Weather Update: Nate Silver Crunches Numbers on Probabilities

Each weekday between now and Super Bowl Sunday The Big Lead will run a post on the predicted weather for Seahawks-Broncos. We’ll try to make this as painless as possible.

As it did yesterday, Accuweather.com lists the expected high and low for next Sunday in East Rutherford to be 36 and 24 degrees, respectively, with a 30% chance of precipitation.

As Nate Silver notes in the video above, though, climatology is about as accurate as a weather forecast for more than a week away. Silver’s team discovered that there’s about a 21% chance of temperatures at or below 25 degrees, 21% chance of precipitation, and a 31% chance of winds at or greater than 15 MPH.

In our estimates, there’s about a 90% chance that Silver was not profoundly psyched when ESPN asked him to stand outside at MetLife Stadium and deliver this report.