NCAA Tournament Bubble: Take a Blind Taste Test [Updated with Team Identities]

The final exam is getting close. People are debating the bubble. (and I might have a post on some of my pet peeves this week). Let’s do a blind test of teams. But rather than talk about how teams did against the RPI top 50 (yes, one of my pet peeves), let’s break it down. The RPI can be deceptive, and when we break it down that way, we include losses to #1 seeds in the same breath as wins over teams that might not be in the tournament.

Looking at other mock brackets, I divided teams into groups of 15, based on where they were projected, from top seeds, to bubble teams, to teams likely in the NIT who have fallen off the bubble in recent weeks. This also helps, by the way, hide the identity, because most people are used to looking at Top 50. I also include a couple of other things, my “Wins over Bubble” score, which takes the entire schedule, including where games are played, and who (so there, even a game at #1 is treated way differently than at home against #12), plus the general RPI range a team is currently occupying. Few bubble teams have a good winning percentage against the best teams in the country. I highlighted in green (good) or orange (bad) when a team was above or below average in a particular category. There are 14 teams here. 7 should make it, 7 should not.

So take the test, who is in and who is out entering tournament weekend? Mark down the animals you want, and then pick up to 7 teams to make the tournament. (Identities Below after the Poll)

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Here are the teams/pseudonyms:

Alligators- Arkansas
Bobcats- BYU
Cardinals – California
Dogs – Dayton
Elephants – Florida State
Frogs – Georgetown
Giraffes – Green Bay
Hippos – Minnesota
Iguanas – Missouri
Jaguars – Nebraska
Koalas – Pittsburgh
Lions – Providence
Monkeys – Tennessee
Narwhals – Xavier