Washington Redskins Merchandise Sales More Related to Robert Griffin Popularity Drop than Name Controversy

The Washington Redskins have seen a dramatic drop in merchandise sales, and some outlets want to attribute it to the name controversy. CNN had a report on the sales plummet, attributing the drop to logo and name concerns.

"The furor has had an impact. Sales of Redskins items plunged 35% in the most recent quarter, despite a 3% rise in sales of NFL merchandise overall, according to SportsSourceOne, a service that tracks licensed merchandise sales nationwide. “People are having a second thoughts about wearing a T-shirt with the logo or name that it has now been called racist,” said Matt Powell, senior analyst for SportsSourceOne."

Dave Zirin of The Nation also attributed this to “an act of quiet resistance” to the racist Washington team name, pointing out that the team has been largely terrible for 22 years, without similar declines.

But is concern over the name and logo the most likely explanation? In order to buy concern over the Redskins name as the driving factor, you would have to accept that people who were otherwise fans of the team and willing to buy a jersey in 2013 changed their minds over the course of one season because of the logo/name.

I am skeptical of this for a number of reasons. Public opinion on this issue is not overtly in favor of a name change . . . yet. ESPN’s Outside The Lines just did a feature on the name, that included a poll that found 71 percent of respondents were in favor of keeping the name. This is an increase in those opposing the name from 22 years ago (11 percent then, vs. 29 percent now). So while public opinion may be shifting, the media is out in front on this one.

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Further, we are not concerned, when it comes to merchandise, with everyone, because it is primarily going to be the team’s fans that are driving sales. Is there any other indication that a large group of Washington fans are in favor of a name change, moreso than the general public?

The more likely explanation for the merchandise decline is the market crash of the team popularity on the field, particularly in regard to quarterback Robert Griffin III. According to a spokesperson with NFLshop.com, Washington is 12th so far since April 2014 in merchandise sales, was also 12th between April 2013 and March 2014, and was fourth from April 2012 to March 2013. That fourth-place ranking corresponds with the drafting of Griffin and the subsequent run to a playoff berth.

I am not sure that the name controversy is contributing greatly to these declines, but I am sure that a fair portion of NFL fans are frontrunners. When I looked three years ago, team popularity based on Harris polling data fluctuated far more than you would think based on sampling error.

Baltimore and the New York Giants are the other two teams that were in the top 10 in merchandise sales in the April 2012 to March 2013 period, but are no longer in the top 10. Baltimore was coming off a Super Bowl win, and then followed it up with an 8-8 season and no playoffs. The New York Giants started last season in disastrous fashion. Baltimore is now in the middle third of teams in merchandise sales after spiking in the post-Super Bowl glow, and the Giants had an almost identical fall to Washington (third to 11th) without any naming controversy.

Robert Griffin III is no longer in the top 25 of jersey sales (according to NFLshop.com, he is just outside at 26th). Just two years ago, he was first, and set a record for jersey sales. Last year, he was fourth. For comparison, while you might expect some decline after an initial surge, Griffin’s drop in popularity has been precipitous. For comparison, Manning was second behind Griffin in 2012, in his first year in the new Denver jersey, and still third last year and fourth so far this year. Colin Kaepernick, who emerged as the starter the same year, has been top five in each of the last three years. And with Griffin dropping so much, there is no other Washington player in the top 25, either.

Zirin dismissed the decline on the basis off on-the-field play because Washington has been largely a bad team for the last two decades. However, this was in fact a factor in the furor over Griffin to begin with, and we are measuring the decline from a spike in sales due to that factor. According to Harris poll data, Washington averaged being the 12th most popular team from 2002 to 2011, a decade when they made only two playoff appearances. That is exactly in line with their current merchandise sales ranking. (Unfortunately, we don’t have Harris poll data from 2012 to see the immediate Griffin spike in fan responses).

That drop you are seeing is all of the air coming out of people first jumping on, then off, the Griffin bandwagon. While momentum for a name change may be building, I’m not ready to assume that the fans are voting with their pocket books on the logo, rather than the results that saw a phenom get benched a year after taking the nation’s capital by storm.