Fantasy Football Waiver Wire, Week 8: Time to Take a Chance on Robert Griffin III in Washington

When do you take a chance on Robert Griffin III? I know that the last two years have been tough, and just a month ago some people were talking like he might never be the starting quarterback again in Washington. On Sunday, though, Kirk Cousins was benched in favor of Colt McCoy. Colt McCoy will likely start this week (and would be a low end one week starting option given the Cowboys’ defense has been pretty good). After that?

It’s possible that Griffin could be back as early as this week, with news that he will return to practice. More likely, the team will play it cautiously, rest him for Monday’s game and maybe even take him through the week 10 bye week before returning. But given the news that he is returning to practice, his return to the field makes the chances he ever starts a game again in Washington about 100%.

There’s a difference between taking a chance on Griffin with a large part of your team, and using a waiver wire speculative add on him. And I think he is the type of play that has potential to pay off big later in the year, for a team with an uncertain or platoon situation at quarterback.

From week 2 to week 6, Kirk Cousins–while playing poorly enough to get benched at the half in week 7–was the 10th highest scoring fantasy quarterback. Griffin is better than Cousins, both in real life and for fantasy purposes with his added running ability. The situation is pretty favorable in Washington for fantasy gold: big play receivers and plenty of receiving depth, a defense that isn’t very good and will require production out of the quarterback, and a favorable passing schedule when many leagues are entering the fantasy playoffs. The week 11 game is against the team allowing the most points and highest passer rating to quarterbacks in Tampa, and weeks 14-16 are against the Rams, Giants, and Eagles.

He is currently owned in 36% of leagues, and this week may be the time to strike if your starter has already had a bye and you can wait a few more weeks.

Here are the rest of this week’s waiver wire recommendations.

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QUARTERBACKS

Let’s set aside the RG3 talk, and move on to those that can help you this week in a pinch. There are plenty of quality matchups out there to take advantage of, if you are sitting with Kaepernick on your bench.

Shallow: Alex Smith (59%) going against the Rams is your matchup play in shallow leagues. Smith has looked better in recent weeks, the line has gotten healthy, and Russell Wilson just put up big numbers against this defense a week ago.

Average: The Buccaneers are allowing the highest passer rating in the league, and the most fantasy points, and are the only team that is giving up over 300 yards a game. This makes Teddy Bridgewater (28%) a very good matchup play this week. The only question is whether Leslie Frazier will be carried off the field by Bucs players, but I’m guessing no.

If you don’t want to go Bridgewater, then Ryan Tannehill (43%) is another good option going against the Jags

Deep: Kyle Orton (12%) is going against a Jets team that is struggling to stop anybody through the air, but is stout against the run. Add in the Jackson and Spiller injuries, and the emergence of Sammy Watkins, and this seems like a sneaky play in deeper leagues.

RUNNING BACKS

At this point in the season, most of the obvious candidates who should be moving up onto rosters have already been taken and are appearing on more than two-thirds of rosters. It falls to injury situations and unexpected emergences to provide waiver wire value, and that’s what we see this week.

Shallow: no borderline options (but see below)

Average: Johnathan Stewart (49%) is probably the most playable matchup so long as DeAngelo is out again this week, though there are much better waiver options who are almost universally available regardless of league size.

Deep: Tre Mason (20%) got 18 carries; Zac Stacy got none (and played one snap all game). Before the season, I expressed my clear preference for Andre Ellington among the two NFC West backs going in the same range. I have plenty of misses, as does everyone–but my skepticism on Stacy was well-founded. He needed heavy volume, and once he was replaceable it didn’t happen. You would think this is more or less a permanent move and Mason will be the back to own going forward, after having a big game.

Denard Robinson (9%) had a breakout game for Jacksonville. The Jaguars had gotten absolutely no production from the backfield, and Toby Gerhart has been a waste. Will Gerhart eat into Robinson’s production some? Maybe. The bigger concern is that Jacksonville isn’t very good and won’t play with the second half lead very often like they did against the Browns. Still, Robinson was the clear choice over Storm Johnson on Sunday. He’s worth a chance.

Anthony Dixon (2%) gets the opportunity in Buffalo with Fred Jackson out with the groin injury, and Spiller done for the year.

Going deeper, Jonas Gray of New England got 3 carries (Vereen with 11 was the only other back to get any) and while you can’t predict Belichick, Gray is probably worth a low end flier just to see if that was a fluke or if he will get platoon touches with Ridley out, if the game plan calls for more runs (against the Jets, you pass).

Similarly, Juwan Thompson (5%) has been the one now getting carries along with Ronnie Hillman, and on a short week could get even more action.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Shallow: Dwayne Bowe (58%) is the matchup play this week against the Rams, who have given up some big plays in recent weeks. Mike Evans (56%) is worth a roster spot, not only because he is young and could improve over the second half of the season, but because there is a non-zero chance that Vincent Jackson gets traded mid-season.

Average: Doug Baldwin (39%) becomes the player to own in Seattle and immediately had over 100 yards and a touchdown after the Percy Harvin trade. Allen Robinson (34%) continues to develop a connection with Blake Bortles and added his first touchdown last week.

For one week matchup purposes, look to Greg Jennings (37%) going against the Bucs flammable secondary.

Deep: Jermaine Kearse (9%) also becomes a fantasy option with Harvin gone. This week’s flyer play is John Brown (21%) going against the Eagles, in a game where the Cardinals will need to take some shots against the Philadelphia secondary.

TIGHT END

Shallow: I think we are rinse and repeat mode at tight end with the recommendations. Owen Daniels (59%) is a top 12 start again, and the last time Baltimore played Cincinnati, the tight ends combined for 14 catches.

Average: Charles Clay (32%) caught his first touchdown last week and has a pretty good matchup against Jacksonville.

Deep: Clay Harbor (18%) is the default option if you need a tight end start and the big names are gone. He provides a safe . . . what’s the term I’m looking for? . . . because he doesn’t have the household name or play for a good team, nor has he exploded. But he’s going to get 4-8 looks a game.

OVERALL

Tre Mason
Anthony Dixon
Robert Griffin III
Doug Baldwin
Denard Robinson
Owen Daniels
Mike Evans
Dwayne Bowe
Greg Jennings
Jonas Gray