Pigskin Pigsplosion NFL Week 16 Preview: Where Have All the Exciting Games Gone?
This year has certainly seemed like it has lacked as much (on the field) drama as other recent seasons. That’s partially a reflection of the primetime results and matchups, as seemingly most of them were non-competitive.
But let’s go to the data. First, touchdowns in the final minute of a game to either give the scoring team the lead, or give them a chance to tie and send it to overtime. These events can be rare, but 1-2 each week can save the rest of a slate.
There have been 10 such games this year. There were 21 last season, and the average over the last five seasons has been 18 such games. So yeah, if you have had a feeling that there has been less drama at the end of games, there has been. Yeah, 18 isn’t many, but it’s more than one per week. There have been plenty of weeks this year without a late game magic moment.
What about close games in general? Here’s a summary of the number of games decided by 8 or fewer points this year, and in the previous five years, through week 15.
The primetime games are the most noticeable, but it’s been across the board. There have, in fact, been fewer close games in 2014.
Ryan: 9-6-1 (113-107-3)
Stephen: 7-8-1 (107-113-3)
Jason: 6-9-1 (103-115-3)
Tennessee @ Jacksonville (-3.5)
Stephen: Football is dead to me. Wait, football is ALIVE to me. I can finally watch and enjoy football without worrying about which players are doing what. An annual tradition. And I’m so glad it gets started with… the Jaguars and Titans. The battle for AFC South [opposite of supremacy]. OK, maybe I’ll wait until the weekend to love football again. TITANS
Jason: This game has it all. Two of the top 32 markets in the NFL. Two of the top 32 teams. Lots of big names–a perusal of each roster shows several with more than 15 characters. Oh, and a Wendy’s reference. Chili FTW. Titans.
San Diego @ San Francisco (-1)
Stephen: Odds on favorite for the game that results in post about a fight between fans on Monday. CHARGERS
Jason: I don’t even think we could put those odds up they are such a favorite. By the way, good on San Francisco for releasing Ray McDonald. We need more organizations like this that value winning over character only up until such point as they are mathematically eliminated from the postseason. 49ers.
Ryan: Y’all are feisty today. Chargers.
Philadelphia (-7.5) @ Washington
Stephen: Odds on favorite for the game that results in think pieces about a quarterback’s future with a team on Monday. EAGLES
Jason: The team that gets the lead in this one will likely have the advantage, strongased on the quarterstrongacks not strongeing astrongle to do quarterstrongack things. Washington
Ryan: The Eagles beat up on bad teams. Everybody knows that.
Minnesota @ Miami (-6.5)
Stephen: Uh… VIKINGS
Jason: Dude . . . Dolphins
Ryan: Line seems way too high. Vikings.
Green Bay (-10.5) @ Tampa Bay
Ryan: People have been (comparatively) hating on Aaron Rodgers this week. I presume Skip Bayless said something salacious, though it didn’t cross my timeline and I’m not gonna go look for it. Packers losses bode well for their next week performance.
Stephen: Bayless is already in your head. You lost. In addition to losing the week before, playing the Buccaneers bodes well for the Packers this week. PACKERS
Jason: Last week’s game against Buffalo dropped Aaron Rodgers to 8th all-time in single season passer rating. If he doesn’t watch out, he might fall out of the top ten and then really suck. Packers.
Detroit (-8) @ Chicago
Ryan: It’ll be fascinating to see if there is a team out there that is willing to trade for Jay Cutler this offseason. Because the NFL version of hot stove (campfire, maybe?) is an increasingly huge part of the year now, perhaps the NFL writers will treat us to Cutler in Washington. Lions.
Stephen: Patiently waiting for Lisk’s post about how Jimmy Clausen is poised to be the breakout quarterback of 2015. LIONS
Jason: I’ve been patiently waiting on the next Gangnam Style or “Call Me Maybe” to come along, Stephen. Bears because Jimmy Clausen will dominate.
Atlanta @ New Orleans (-6)
Stephen: Saints can still get to .500. Then what will people complain about? SAINTS
Jason: My kids being out on a snow day today, while I’m trying to write this, probably. Saints.
Ryan: I’ll complain about the ones that got away. Falcons.
New England (-10) @ NY Jets
Ryan: What are the odds that the Jets are able to replace Rex Ryan with somebody better? 1 in 5? Worse?
Stephen: I’m hearing Harbaugh. PATRIOTS
Jason: Better at what? Bold pronouncements or quarterback development? Patriots
Kansas City @ Pittsburgh (-3)
Jason: I’m rooting for two things here. The Chiefs to win to keep the playoff hopes going, and for there to be no wide receiver touchdowns for Kansas City yet again. At this point, let’s get that streak. It’s kind of amazing. Chiefs.
Ryan: I didn’t realize that the Steelers were in playoff pole position. They’ve had such a weird season. They’re 9-5, but they have losses against the Bucs, Browns, and Jets. Imagine if they were good against bad teams.
Stephen: I’m sorry for all the mean comments I’ve made to you, Jason [note: this comment was edited in but I’m sure it’s what Stephen would have said if he were here, and also picked the Chiefs.]
Cleveland @ Carolina (-3.5)
Ryan: Johnny Manziel and the Browns can only go up from last week, no?
Stephen: No. It can still get worse. It can always get worse in Cleveland. Did you see some insane person wants to get rid of the city’s beloved Rock and Roll Hall of Fame? Unbelievable. PANTHERS
Jason: It’s too bad Johnny Manziel couldn’t get voted in as the tenth Brown to the Pro Bowl. Wish there was still time. Panthers.
Baltimore (-5.5) @ Houston
Stephen: What chance does little J.J. Watt have against an Elite quarterback like Joe Flacco? RAVENS
Jason: Oh, crap, I forgot to write the “Texans should sign Tim Tebow” post. The week got away from me. Texans.
Ryan: Everyone out here in these streets has been swaggerjacking our Tebow idea. Page hits abound. Ravens.
NY Giants @ St. Louis (-5)
Stephen: Odell Beckham Jr. will have all 175 of the Giants yards from scrimmage and score 3 touchdowns. RAMS
Jason: Jeff Fisher has to win this to get to 8-8, right? By the way, I love Bruce Arians. Giants.
Ryan: I forgot to mention up-top that there are Saturday games this week, and that seems worth noting. For relationship purposes, it’s actually kind of a good thing that neither of them are that good.
Buffalo (-6) @ Oakland
Stephen: I’m going to pick against the Bills again. Go Bills! RAIDERS
Jason: If Derek Carr has a similar drop-off as Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers going against the Bills defense, he will throw for negative yards. Bills.
Ryan: The Bills are the fringe team that I most want to make the playoffs, but will probably get boned by tiebreaker scenarios.
Indianapolis @ Dallas (-3)
Stephen: Hmm… This is definitely the national game, isn’t it? And DeMarco Murray has a broken hand? Might as well throw bombs all afternoon. COWBOYS
Jason: The Cowboys have everyone believing in them, finally. (taps fingers deviously). Colts.
Ryan: What Lisk said. Colts.
Seattle (-8) @ Arizona
Ryan: Not a single person has come up with a good counterpoint for Lisk’s and my argument that Arizona should’ve signed Tim Tebow or someone like him for this game. Nevertheless, this feels like a trap, and I am gonna side with the Vegas fat cats here. Cardinals.
Stephen: Counterpoint: Tebow hasn’t played in just as long as Lindley and he doesn’t know the offense? SEAHAWKS
Jason: Well, I got cursed out by one of our commenters with a persuasive four-letter argument, and I don’t want Tebow in the league either. Cardinals.
Denver (-3.5) @ Cincinnati
Stephen: Peyton Manning and I may never speak again. I don’t know if he’s washed up as a football player, but he certainly is as a fantasy football player. BRONCOS
Jason: See, Stephen, this is why you have Andy Dalton and Nick Foles as your quarterbacks. Broncos
Ryan: The weather forecast currently calls for it to be 45 degrees and rainy in Cincy on Monday night, and those are not the circumstances in which Peyton Manning generally thrives. Bengals.