The PAT Rule Change: Breaking Down the Impact in Cold-Weather Stadiums

The NFL is officially changing the “extra point” rule, moving kicking attempts back to the 15 yard line, while leaving two-point conversion attempts at the 2 yard line. Bill Polian came out yesterday and said the Patriots would not have originally proposed a similar rule change if it didn’t impact them favorably.

"“The reason they proposed it is obvious. In January, December and even late November, in Northern [climates], Foxboro, Buffalo, Cleveland, Chicago, Pittsburgh — well-documented of course in Pittsburgh at the open end of the stadium how difficult it is to kick field goals — the team from the Northern [climates] that plays and practices in the harsher weather, the old Meadowlands being a prime example of that, has a decided advantage."

So let’s talk about whether this is true, and then who would gain the advantage by a rule change. I went through all outdoor kicks with a line of scrimmage from the 14 to 16 yard line, at the 14 outdoor “seasonal” stadiums in the North, East Coast, and Midwest (from Nashville at one end to Buffalo, Green Bay, and New England at the other in terms of average temperature). [All data via pro-football-reference.com’s great play finder].

As Football Perspective notes, kicks at the new distance have been converted at 96% over the last two years, which is a drop off from the extra point rate, but not a huge change. What about when we look at changes due to kicking outdoors in these stadiums. Here’s a breakdown of the conversion rate at the outdoor stadiums in the East and Midwest, by month.

So we see that the accuracy rate is slightly lower at these outdoor stadiums. Kickers made 181 of 200 kicks (90.5%) at these fourteen outdoor stadiums, compared to 209 of 225 (92.9%) from same distance at the other eighteen warm weather or dome stadiums. We also see that the success rate does go down, though the split is between September and everything else.

What about home versus road splits, though? That’s where we see part of the advantage that cold weather teams have. The home kicker in the above sample made 95.1% of kicks (98 of 103) while the visiting kicker made only 85.6% (83 of 97). So yes, the home team in cold weather venues does gain an advantage in extra points with this rule change … if the visitor always chooses to kick.

But what about if they make the decision to go for two? As we can see, road teams were missing too many kicks in this range anyway, and were probably behaving sub-optimally. The two-point conversion rate is probably truly above 50%. Over the last five years, teams are 136 of 272, exactly 50%, at converting them. That includes aborted snaps that really should be credited against the kicking attempts but are not. It’s hard to tell exactly how many where false negatives against “going for two,” but I feel pretty comfortable saying that one marked as “Rian Lindell passing, illegal touching by Cordy Glenn” is. Same with those marked “Eben Britton” failed attempt, or “Matt Bosher” failed attempt, or “Dustin Colquitt” failed attempt.

But let’s set those cases aside and just say it’s 50%. Road teams could actually behave more optimally by going for it, and it could actually reduce the advantage. Then again, who am I kidding? Belichick has made a living taking advantage of the inefficiencies and sub-optimal decisions of the opponents, both on the field and in trading.