Are the Washington Nationals Ever Going to Get Their Act Together?
By Mike Cardillo
Expectations and sports always make for interesting bedfellows. Some teams and players thrive under the weight of expectations. Others wilt. Before the 2015 season began, it was basically World Series or bust for the Washington Nationals. Vegas handed the Nats 6-to-1 odds to win the Series and Washington’s over/win total was 93, also the best in baseball at the time.
It’s never quite clicked for Washington. The Nationals began the season 2-6 and didn’t climb over the .500 mark until May 9. As of Wednesday morning the Nationals (58-54) are on the outside looking in on the playoffs, trailing the Mets by 2.5 games and the Cubs by 5.5 for the second Wild Card.
FanGraphs rates Washington with a 48 percent chance to win the division and only a 55 percent to make the playoffs — not a hopeless situation, but hardly living up to the preseason expectations.
As I noted at the time of the Jonathan Papelbon trade two weeks ago, the Nationals needed to keep adding or they’d waste fantastic statistical seasons from Max Scherzer and Bryce Harper. So far Scherzer’s more than lived up to his $200 million billing with a 2.44 ERA, 156 ERA+, 2.53 FIP and a near-perfect game in June. Tellingly, his record is only 11-8.
However since the July 28 trade for Papelbon the Nationals are 6-9, going from up a game on the Mets to their current position 2.5 back.
Harper’s age 22 season is what most baseball pundits expected when the hype train about his talent began earlier this decade. Harper leads baseball in home runs (29), runs (77), OPS (1.110) and OPS+ (202). The last stat compares a player to the rest of the league, and that score puts him in the range of some of the greats of all-time. His 2015 WAR is 7.6 according to Baseball-Reference.
Why does Washington find itself in this situation? Here’s two observations from afar, saying nothing of Nationals fan lukewarm evaluations of manager Matt Williams decision-making.
Their Starting Pitching Hasn’t Been As Great as Anticipated:
In 2014, Washington led baseball with a 3.03 staff ERA, so adding Scherzer to that mix meant the Nationals had the chance to do something historic. Instead, the staff ERA’s gone up to 3.65, good enough for 10th — not bad, but not quite what anyone anticipated and not quite as good as the division rival Mets pitching, either.
Jordan Zimmermann and Gio Gonzalez haven been above average, while rookie Joe Ross has been better than expected in 49+ innings, but Doug Fister was sent to the bullpen and Stephen Strasburg — recently off the DL — remains inconsistent. His last start, which included 12 strikeouts isencouraging, and it lowered his ERA under five in the process.
Conventional baseball wisdom would lead you to believe the Nationals are a team that could get on a roll and reel off a long winning streak at any point because of their starters. However Washington hasn’t won consecutive games since July 29/30 — a span of 12 games and not exactly the formula to gain ground in a playoff race.
Injuries, Lack of Production:
Projected regulars Denard Span, Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth and Anthony Rendon all missed significant time. Washington’s gamble at the trade deadline was stand pat and wait on these guys to get healthy.
In 40 games, Werth’s OPS+ is an anemic 50, which is indicative of the Washington offense as a whole — and he’s got another two seasons at $21+ million coming to him. Fourteen players have at least 100 at bats for Washington this year. Only Harper, Yunel Escobar, Clint Robinson and Span have posted an above-average OPS+. Ian Desmond, in a contract year, is putting together a season to forget with a mere .656 OPS.
Even so, the Nationals run differential remains +27, but you can see why Harper’s needed to do the work of two players.
Washington isn’t quite 100 percent in “win now” mode, with no regard for the future. Zimmermann, Desmond, Fister and Span are pending free agents, but the window for winning with the Harper-Strasburg-Harper is on the horizon. Harper is only making $2.5 million this year and can become a free agent after 2018. Strasburg is a free agent after next season. The expectations, though, were for this team to contend for a World Series in 2015 and that might not happen.
It still behooves Washington to attempt to add to the roster until the postseason trade deadline closes on Aug. 31. Imagine how different the NL East race would look if the Nationals out-bid the Mets for Yoenis Cespedes for the rest of 2015?
Best case scenario: Span gets healthy, Rendon remembers what he did in 2014 and the Nats squeeze past the Mets and avoid the Cardinals in the playoffs. Scherzer, et al then dominate in the short postseason series, with Harper hitting lots of home runs for the second consecutive October. If Washington makes the World Series few will care if it did so winning 86 or so games in the regular season.
Worst case scenario: Bryce Harper wins NL MVP and Scherzer takes the Cy Young … but the Nationals miss out on the playoffs and get stuck at a crossroads in the winter, surpassed by the Mets young pitching in the Division.
[Photos via USA Today Sports Images]