The College Football Column: First Day of School
By Ty Duffy
College Football’s first weekend resembles the first day of school. The tension is touchable. Everyone wants to see who grew five inches, who packed on 20 pounds, and, perhaps, who made an unfortunate effort at homemade frosted tips. (Answer: me, ages 10-15) Impressions get cast. They linger, however unfairly.
This introductory weekend has its kickoffs and neutral site clashes: Louisville vs. Auburn, Arizona State vs. Texas A&M and Alabama vs. Wisconsin. Though, with recency bias manifest, reading too much moving forward is foolish.
Curbstomping a Top 10 opponent by 24 on the road may not be a bellwether. (RIP: Kenny “Trill” Hill.) Having your Heisman candidate quarterback go down for the season before losing to a ramshackle Virginia Tech by two touchdowns at home may not preclude you from the playoff. No one will be “in” or “out” after this week, except every team outside the Power Five and Notre Dame. Sorry, the Autonomy Five.
Where this weekend may be useful is finding out what the heck has been going on at a few inscrutable schools.
Michigan: The Wolverines hired Jim Harbaugh. You may have heard. They have been recruiting to play “Jim Harbaugh” football, even if things came up resoundingly “Brady Hoke.” Michigan also has not been spotted playing competent football on both sides at the same time against a decent opponent in nearly two calendar years.
Media win projections stuck in the 6-8 range. Translation: “Uncertainty. No one is going out on a limb.” It’s not clear the Wolverines have filled their abyss at quarterback. The depth chart resolved little, OR did it? We don’t know what will happen against Utah on the road. But, it will break us free the baseless discussion loop.
South Carolina: The Gamecocks went 6-6 in 2014, but a notable 6-6. They were 18 points away from 10 wins. Equally, they were 16 points away from three wins. That futile stat works both ways. Entering 2015, that South Carolina loses its quarterback, most prolific tailback, five of its top six pass catchers (though the sixth is an explosive one) and three starting offensive linemen. Woof.
South Carolina does have a fair bit coming back on defense. That defense, however, ranked 104th in yards/play allowed and 117th in DFEI. Awful would be an improvement. Do the Gamecocks bounce back? Do they take a tumble? Whatever happens with the HBC, it will be entertaining. We’ll also find out quickly, with live opponents scheduled every week through mid-October.
Washington: “Chris Petersen with time to prepare” used to mean something. Now, entering his second season, it looks like Washington will end up near the bottom of the Pac 12. Petersen doesn’t have Kellen Moore. In fact, he may be starting a true freshman. That freshman (or someone else) will play behind a brand new offensive line. Oh, and don’t forget the Huskies’ gutted front seven on defense.
A year ago, Petersen was in the discussion for the nation’s best coach. Now, he heads on the road to the team he left, Boise State, as a double-digit underdog. It’s not unthinkable a poor season leaves him on the hot seat entering 2016. If his wand still has magic, now is the time.
Riley may have the pieces to run a facsimile of his offense. His chief test will come on defense, where Nebraska has ranged from not very good to apocalyptic. The famed “Blackshirts” devolved into an anti-hybrid: not strong enough to stop teams running at them, too slow to stop teams running around them. That crew loses Randy Gregory and faces Taysom Hill and BYU off the bat.
Week 1 Picks
Northwestern (+12) vs. Stanford: Stanford heads east for a noon kickoff. Shaw’s offense isn’t explosive. He is naturally conservative. Northwestern is used to physical play, is deep on the defensive line and can probe a rebuilt Cardinal defense enough to hang around.
Bowling Green (+21.5) at Tennessee: Bowling Green returns everyone from an explosive, Art Briles-style offense. They get QB Matt Johnson (top 15 in passer rating in 2013) back from injury. The public will be way too high on Tennessee after the off-season hype.
North Carolina (+2) vs. South Carolina: UNC returns everyone from a prolific offense, including QB Marquise Williams. They can score. It’s not clear South Carolina can do that yet, much less defend.
Akron (+31.5) at Oklahoma: Akron gets up for big games. They beat Pitt last year. They should have beaten Michigan in 2013. Their aggressive front seven faces the Sooners breaking in a new line, new system and new quarterback. Oklahoma is the top public bet on the board. Fade.
Temple (+7) vs. Penn State: Temple improved from 112th to 31st in DFEI in 2014. They return basically the entire two deep from that unit. Believe Penn State’s offensive line imporvement when you see it.