College Football Playoff Committee May Decide The Big Ten Title
By Ty Duffy
Michigan State edged Michigan on last weekend’s muffed punt of the millennium. That sets up quite the interesting scenario in the B1G East. The division is top heavy. So, we’d presume the top 3 teams win out besides facing each other. If Ohio State beats Michigan State at home, then loses at Michigan, all three finish 7-1 in the division. Any would be favored over Iowa and have a solid argument for a playoff place. As Tom Dienhart pointed out, that would create a mess.
The conference’s first four division tie-breakers (record against each other, record vs. rest of division, record vs. highest finishers, record against common conference opponents) would be a wash. It would then come down to the fifth tiebreaker, ranking by the college football playoff committee, which would not come out until Tuesday night that week.
Even then, the tiebreaker may not be a straight ranking by the committee. If the top two teams are within one place of each other, it reverts back to head to head. So, if Ohio State is No. 5 and Michigan is No. 6, Michigan goes through on the head-to-head result.
Ranking those teams would be a difficult judgement call. For the purpose of the hypothetical, let’s say Michigan beats Ohio State 31-20, a clear double-digit win. Ohio State beats Michigan State 34-21.
Ohio State: The Buckeyes are 11-1. They beat Michigan State. But, they just lost to Michigan, a team many are now hailing as the conference’s best team. Their schedule strength is weak. On the other hand (and this shouldn’t count), not picking them is de facto eliminating the defending champion from the playoff.
Michigan State: The Spartans are 11-1. However, their one ranked win is the fluky final play over Michigan (to be fair, no one discounts that if it happens in the 2nd quarter). That may be the shakiest résumé, though one can imagine the outcry from East Lansing if Michigan snuck ahead with a head-to-head loss in Ann Arbor and a worse overall record.
Michigan: The Wolverines are 10-2. Though, they’ve been blowing the doors off teams, evidenced in whatever “game control” metrics the committee is using. They finished strong. They lost to MSU on a fluke play. Michigan played a harder non-conference schedule than either competitor (BYU could bounce back into the 9-10 win range). The second loss would be on the road, in the 4th quarter, at potentially Top 5-10 Utah in Week 1.
There would be no easy choice. That would be problematic for the playoff committee, because the committee process adds no conclusive weight to the decision. It just makes one. Like the BCS it will work smoothly, when there is no decision for it to make. The path of least resistance would be Ohio State, though there would still be resistance.
Unfortunately for the playoff committee, this is no convoluted scenario. It’s among the most probable outcomes. It would require one mild upset.