College Football Playoff Contenders Breakdown: Week 9
By Ty Duffy
Here’s a look at the College Football Playoff field as we enter Week 9. By our count, 10 teams can still get in by winning the rest of their games. Six teams on the periphery could get in with some help. A few teams beyond that could potentially enter the mix.
Win And You’re In
Ohio State/Michigan State/Iowa: All three, winning out, would reach the playoff. Iowa, with a weak schedule, has to be 13-0. The Michigan State vs. Ohio State loser should be out. Ohio State could, pending what happens elsewhere, survive a loss at Michigan.
Baylor/TCU/Oklahoma State: Three undefeateds. If one wins out at 12-0, they are in. All three have a tough November. None of the three have played each other. None have played Oklahoma. A one-loss champ becomes more complicated. See: 2014.
Clemson: Florida State at home is the one remaining difficult game (if it proves to be one). Have to avoid let downs against N.C. State and South Carolina and win title game.
LSU/Alabama/Florida: LSU is undefeated. If they win, they are in. Fair or unfair, expect the SEC to get the first crack with a one-loss champion. We can presume an Alabama or Florida winning out at 12-1 would be in the final four.
Need Outside Help
These teams are in good position. But, they need one or more of the above scenarios to falter.
Stanford/Utah: Both schools could win out, finish 12-1, and present a strong résumé. Stanford could add a strong non-conference win over Notre Dame. Utah has one over Michigan.
Oklahoma: The Sooners should head into the final stretch – at Baylor, TCU, at Oklahoma State – at 8-1. They would make a formidable late argument winning all three games. They won at Tennessee. Right or wrong, being a brand name helps.
Florida State: Florida State has no résumé now. But, winning out would give them wins over Clemson, Florida and a decent team in the title game. Whether they’ll do that is another question.
Notre Dame: They still have a formidable schedule left: back to back road trips to Temple and Pitt, back to back road trips to Fenway for a night game and to Stanford. But, if the Irish get to 11-1, not having a conference title game hurts them. A second-best win over Pitt/USC may not be enough.
Pitt: The Panthers have been riding their luck with one-score wins. But, they are here and, technically, still in this. Pitt winning out means beating Notre Dame and Clemson/FSU, not to mention solid wins over Duke and North Carolina. The road loss to Iowa by a field goal won’t damn them. They could have a credible playoff résumé.
Need A Lot of Outside Help
These teams need to win out, and have things around them get 2007 crazy.
Michigan: Could a two-loss team finish in the Final 4? It’s plausible. Michigan must win out and beat Ohio State. They need Michigan State to drop a second game or rely on the playoff committee to get them to the B1G title game. That puts them at 11-2. They would require moderate chaos to clear the way up front. It’s not inconceivable, but that fluke loss to MSU may prove costly.
Ole Miss: It’s still possible. The loss coming to Memphis helps their case. If the Rebels win out, they win the SEC West, beating every team. If the Rebels win the title game, they avenge one loss to Florida. That would be a strong 11-2. Of course, if Memphis is undefeated that places the committee in an awkward spot.
Duke/North Carolina: Either could finish out 12-1. Beating Clemson/FSU would offer one quality win. The major issue would be finding a second win. Duke or UNC would be last in line among the one-loss teams. Multiple two loss teams could slip ahead of them as well.
Memphis/Houston/Temple: Odds are steep for a team outside the Power 5. Being undefeated as an absolute must. Memphis beat Ole Miss, plays Temple and Houston on the road and probably Temple again in the title game. Temple could have wins over Memphis and Houston (title game), as well as a win over Notre Dame and a beat down of Penn State. Houston would have wins over Memphis and Temple. But, beating Louisville/Vandy does not make much of a case. Not probable, but plausible.
Toledo: The committee rewards schedule strength, keeping teams like Toledo (and the three above) out. One-score wins over Arkansas and Iowa State won’t really help them.