NFL Coaches are Still Coming to Terms With the New Extra Point, And Need to Get More Aggressive

Did you hear about all the missed extra points this weekend? Nine of them were missed over the weekend (eight officially, plus a bobbled snap that resulted in a failed pass attempt, but should be credited to the extra point kicking stats).

It shouldn’t be shocking. Eight were missed the previous week. The percentage was almost identical in weeks 12 and 13: 89.5% to 89.3%. We are noticing it now–when there are 9 missed extra points instead of 3 or 4–for a couple of reasons. First, we are finally back to a full schedule of 16 games over the last two weeks, so there are simply more of them attempted, and thus more opportunity for misses. Second, we are getting into December, when weather conditions can impact the kicking game moreso than earlier in the year.

So far this year, extra points have been made at a 93.3% clip. Meanwhile, two-point attempts (once we toss out those that truly belong against extra point tries) are at almost 50% (37 of 75).

Here’s the fourth down field goal percentage for all kicks with a line of scrimmage between the opponent 11 and 20 yard line, by segments of the season, from 2010 to 2014. I also included the percentage of kicks to fourth down conversion attempts by week. This is roughly the distance that we will see these extra point tries from (I went with the slightly broader range for more sample size).

Well, isn’t that interesting? I thought we would see a dropoff in the December games, but it is basically in line with the rest of the year, in both made field goal rate, along with the percentage of times coaches are opting to go for it rather than kick. That’s at a broader level, and so the games truly impacted by high winds or precipitation make up a smaller subset.

Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see if coaches get more aggressive in the face of seeing more misses build up. The two-point conversion has resulted in more average points than the kick option in 2015. Extra points are resulting in 0.93 points per play, while the two-point attempts are at 0.99 points per play. That difference, though, of 0.06 points per point after, isn’t worth the headache of dealing with questions. It would be 2 more points so far this year if a coach went for it every time after a touchdown.

So far, the incentive of moving the kicks back to make a miss a real possibility has not altered coach behavior significantly. NFL Coaches have kicked the extra point on 92.4% of PATs. There will always be plays where teams would go for two, such as end of game situations. Last year, teams kicked the extra point on 95.5% of PATs. So really, we’ve only seen about a 3% increase in coaches going for two.

Mike Tomlin is the one coach that has adjusted. The Steelers frequently go for two after their first touchdown, particularly at home. The Steelers have converted 7 of 10 two-point attempts, for 1.4 points per play, while converting 21 0f 23 extra points.

Plenty of other teams should consider the strategy. Points are fluid, and coaches are probably far too worried about staying on “key” score differences early in games. With safeties, one team kicking more field goals than the other, and yes, missed extra points, there are too many things that happen to worry about being on a specific score. Point maximization should be the goal. We’ll see if those who are in games where kicking becomes more difficult adjust, or just do what they have always done.