This Premier League Season Is A Mess, But An Exciting One
By Ty Duffy
The 2015-16 EPL season has been mystifying. It could offer the most riveting, multilateral title race in years. Every club in the league could be utter crap. Those declarations are not mutually exclusive.
What’s clear though is it is late December. We’re 16 games in. The EPL things that are happening are happening. Leicester City sits atop the table. Chelsea is flirting with relegation. Jose Mourinho, we presume, will be spending the holiday season on his special yacht. Nine clubs remain within reasonable distance of the top four.
Who is the title favorite at this stage? We could know a lot more by January 1st … or not.
Leicester City has a two-point lead. The Foxes were 5,000-1 underdogs entering the season. They haven’t finished higher than a top-division fourth place since the 1920s. Logic and history suggest their run is not sustainable.
Their success has been built on goals. Leicester leads the league with 34. Twenty-six have come from Jamie Vardy (15) and Riyad Mahrez (11). Either player losing form, or falling to injury would be scary, as Leicester ranks just 13th (22) in goals allowed.
The Foxes face tough away fixtures at Everton and Liverpool, then host Manchester City. If they remain in first by January 1st, be more bullish.
If Leicester falls that leaves Arsenal. Maybe the Gunners’ plans have come to fruition. Maybe their stubborn stability has paid off, as the rest of the field has folded. We’ll know more after Monday’s six-pointer against Manchester City. Arguments for Arsenal right now: defense (1st with 13 goals allowed) and their resilient away form: 6-2-1 with a +10 goal difference.
The Gunners led the way much of last season. Some picked them to win this year. Arsenal’s issue, as always in December, is injuries and not supplementing the squad to cover for them. Francis Coquelin, Santi Cazorla, and Jack Wilshere have already diminished central midfield. Another bad one up front or in the back four could see the Gunners unravel.
That would leave petrogarch folly Manchester City. They have the league’s best, deepest squad. They also have, at times, its most disjointed. When overpowering the opponent with talent does not work, there never seems to be a Plan B. That has not been working of late.
City has dropped points in four of its last seven matches, including losses to Liverpool and Stoke. They have been much weaker on the road, with just a 3-2-2 record and seven goals scored (vs. 25 in nine matches at home). That will come into play, as we mentioned, with two of the next three being away trips to Arsenal and Leicester.
Manchester United is alive, technically, in 4th place, just six points back. But, the Red Devils’ recent form has been suspect. They have won only two of their last seven in the league, scoring six goals. That stretch includes three 0-0 draws. That’s not the play United owners expected, plowing more than $200m into the squad in transfer fees alone the past two years.
A couple good results could get them right back in this thing. Whether that happens under Louis van Gaal is another matter. The odd Dutchman has issued himself the “dreaded vote of confidence.”
Beyond that, there’s Tottenham (get serious) and Crystal Palace (fortunate with a +6 goal difference). Liverpool looked like it had something going under new manager Jurgen Klopp, after a 4-1 tonking of Man City. With three of the next four on the road and the fourth against Leicester, maybe not so much.
A few results before the New Year could clarify things, or leave EPL fans just as confused.