NFL Playoffs: The AFC Looks Like a Crapshoot

Yesterday, I wrote about similar teams to each of the six NFC playoff teams. Today, we turn to the AFC. Going back to 2000, I used the expected points for four categories: pass offense, rush offense, pass defense, and rush defense. In addition, I used overall expected points and win total to compare to past playoff teams.

Unlike the NFC, which features three strong candidates that matchup similarly to teams that went on Super Bowl runs in the recent past, the AFC is kind of, well, meh. Denver, at 12-4 thanks to 9 close wins, is not your typical #1 seed candidate. Still, thanks to their pass defense, they show the highest win total of the six AFC teams. Two of the similar teams to Denver, the Carolina Panthers in 2003 and the New England Patriots in 2001, reached the Super Bowl.

New England and Cincinnati profile very similarly. Of course, New England has the bye advantage, but both teams have had their own issues that aren’t fully reflected here–the Patriots’ injuries and the Bengals without Andy Dalton for the last three games.

If you have visions of Houston as a sleeper with a home game, these comparables would tend to dissuade that. Only two won a single playoff game. Their opponent, the Chiefs, rate as a “jack of all trades” team that is above average in all areas. You would think their comparables would have done better, but alas.

Finally, Pittsburgh has a great passing offense, but a weak passing defense (and strong rush defense). Baltimore in 2012 shows up, but well over half of their comparables lost the playoff opener.

Here are the full list of comparables for each team:

DENVER BRONCOS

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

CINCINNATI BENGALS

HOUSTON TEXANS

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

PITTSBURGH STEELERS