It's World Series or Bust for Detroit Tigers, and Both of Those Outcomes are Equally Likely

Mike Illitch, the 86-year-old owner of the Detroit Tigers, wants nothing more than to win a World Series. Time and time again he’s proven he’ll pay a king’s ransom to do it. For a while it looked as if his tradition of spending big in the offseason would come to an end.

After snagging free agent Jordan Zimmerman, first-year general manager Al Avila publicly stated the team was done with big acquisitions because they lacked the financial capacity. Then last night came word the Tigers had signed outfielder Justin Upton to a six-year deal worth $132 million.

With that seismic move, Detroit becomes just the second team in Major League history to pay north of $100 million for two different players in one winter. Illitch’s one track remains firmly in the direction of the postseason. Hope in the Motor City is once again palpable.

But no one knows championships are not won on paper more than Tigers fans. Huge payrolls and marquee names have kept the team in contention for most of the past decade. The franchise’s arrow, however, has been trending downward.

2012: Lost in World Series, 4-0, to San Francisco
2013: Lost American League Championship Series, 4-2, to Boston
2014: Lost American League Division Series, 3-0, to Baltimore
2015: Missed playoffs

Upton is a vastly superior left field option to anything the Tigers had in place. He’s hit more than 25 home runs in each of the past three years and should provide another power bat in the middle of the lineup. His strikeout rate is cause for concern, of course, but there’s hope working with Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez will aid his development and increase contact.

Upton is still relative young at 28 and figures to have plenty of production ahead of him.

That’s the good news. The bad news is that the Tigers also have a plethora of other questions entering the year. They are a team equally capable of greatness and disaster.

First, there’s the pitching staff. Zimmermann’s ERA jumped a full run between the 2014 and 2015 seasons (2.66 to 3.66). He is not a typical postseason ace as he relies on teams putting the ball in play. The No. 2 and No. 3 spots in the rotation are occupied by Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez, two veterans seeking to regain their form after injuries. There is a chance all three have better-than-expected years. There’s also a chance they all regress and added pressure is put on young Daniel Norris and unreliable Mike Pelfrey.

On paper, there are two things that jump out about the projected lineup. One, it’s one capable of instilling fear in opponents. Two, it’s completely void of a pure left-handed hitter.

Cameron Maybin, CF
Ian Kinsler, 2B
Miguel Cabrera, 1B
Victor Martinez, DH
J.D. Martinez, RF
Justin Upton, LF
Nick Castellanos, 3B
James McCann, C
Jose Iglesias, SS

Victor Martinez is the only switch-hitting option. Reliance on an unbalanced lineup may require deft maneuvering from manager Brad Ausmus. It’s no secret that his in-game decisions have been the object of much scorn. The bigger issue is that right-handed pitchers excelled against the Tigers last season.

"Detroit went 53-70 against right-handed starters in 2015. Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, and Kinsler are the only returning Tigers (minimum 300 at-bats) who posted an OPS of at least .725 against right-handers last year."

If healthy Kinsler, Cabrera, and V. Martinez are safe bets to put up All-Star-caliber numbers. The other six players, though, present more of a guessing game.

Maybin, who started his career with the Tigers, hasn’t developed into the hitter he was hoped to become. J.D. Martinez has much work to do in order to repeat his incredible 2015 year. Upton’s penchant for striking out has been addressed above. Castellanos has shown flashes of torrid hitting only to be followed up by long droughts. McCann is one of the best young catchers in the game despite his relative anonymity. Iglesias’ .300 batting average last year was buoyed by an unsustainable amount of infield hits.

The point is this: in recent years it’s been easy for Detroit fans to enter a season with sky-high expectations. Many times the team has performed ably despite never attaining the ultimate goal of a World Series crown. Other times the obvious warts have blown up at the most inopportune times and stymied dreams.

This year the outlook should be a bit different. The Tigers need so many of the uncertainties to break their way in order to contend. With the Kansas City Royals inhabiting the American League Central — and Cleveland, Chicago and Minnesota, all with a reasonable chance of success — it won’t be easy to make the playoffs, let alone advance deep into October.

Illitch has done his part in breaking every piggy bank in sight. It’s cruel to tell an 86-year-old with proven obsession to wait and see, but that’s what has to be done.

How the pieces he’s helped assemble by signing checks fit together remains to be seen. The ceiling is high. The basement is low.

Scary — and exciting — times are ahead. Regardless if this season ends in feast or famine, Illitch can know he went down swinging.

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