Tom Brady Is Getting Old, But the Expectation Is He Lasts Longer than Peyton Manning

Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have had their careers fully entwined more than any other duo of quarterbacks, and both stand near the top of the all-time quarterback mountain. Manning showed signs of decline in 2014, struggled mightily in the first half of the 2015 season at age 39, before a foot injury shut him down. He returned to win a Super Bowl before announcing his retirement.

Brady had several nice things to say about his rival and comrade-in-arms in MMQB today:

"I realized the level of commitment you must have to be great, watching him do it. I know the time I put in, so I knew the time he had to have put in. It’s not 9 to 5. It’s a lifelong commitment. Football is a sport, it’s an art, it’s a religion. It’s all-encompassing. He mastered it.”"

Those might also be said of Tom Brady, who is only one year younger. Nevertheless, the thought on Brady is that he could play for a very long time. In a Sports Illustrated piece just over a year ago, we were introduced to his health and diet guru, Alex Guerrero, and the process he undertakes to fight Father Time.

“Tom is pushing back the aging process,” says throwing coach Tom House “There’s no reason he can’t do at 45 what he did at 25.”

As the saying goes, “age is undefeated,” but Tom Brady is trying to tack on a few more wins before going down.

He also was a little more blunt in a private conversation that came out in his e-mails this summer as part of the Deflategate saga.

“Thanks popa. I’ve got another 7 or 8 years. He has 2. That’s the final chapter. Game on.”

While he was right on Manning’s remaining time in the game, history is not on his side, at least when it comes to lasting near the top for more than a couple more years. 18 QBs have thrown at least 300 passes at age 38, including Brady last year and Manning in 2014. Of those, seven retired following that season, and five more became backups to close out their careers. Only Blanda, Favre, Manning, Moon, and Testaverde continued to start. Blanda was done as a starter the next year (but played as a backup and kicker forever), Manning just retired. Favre had a down year with the Jets before having one last great season at age 40 with a loaded Vikings team. Moon started (as the primary guy) through age 42, Testaverde to age 41.

Here’s a comparison of the first half and second half of games for Manning and Brady at age 38 (including playoff games):

Manning was falling apart by the end of the season and we saw the Broncos collapse at home to the Colts a year ago. Brady’s struggles are largely chalked up to problems with teammate injuries and offensive line struggles. Still, I’ll point out that the dropoff, by completion percentage and yards per attempt, was greater for Brady than Manning a year ago.

The teammate dropoff was real after Dion Lewis’ injury and Julian Edelman missing games. Did any of that, though, mask what could also be age-related decline at an age when even the all-time greats have started to call it quits or slide downhill? Brady thinks he can go on forever, but age will catch up eventually. Will we see it coming?