Syracuse is Out of the NCAA Tournament, Unless Committee Gives Jim Boeheim a Pass for the Suspension

Syracuse lost a heartbreaker in the first game of the ACC Tournament to Pittsburgh, in what was most likely a play-in game to get an at-large spot in the NCAA Tournament. We’ve seen the bubble potentially shrink in the last week, with Wichita State losing in the MVC Tournament and Gonzaga taking out St. Mary’s in the West Coast Conference final.

Here’s the lowdown for Syracuse: They didn’t get to 20 wins, closing at 19-13, 9-9 in the ACC, plus a loss in the tourney. They closed by losing 5 of the last 6 games, against a tough schedule, but couldn’t win any of the key games, losing twice to Pitt, losing at Louisville and UNC, and at bubble longshot Florida State.

Just as importantly, because history shows this matters to the committee, they will drop to somewhere around 66th in the RPI, according to the RPI Forecast projection with today’s loss to Pittsburgh.

For some perspective, only one team that had an RPI below 61 was selected for an at-large spot in the last five years. That was USC back in 2011, who was put in the Last 4 In game in Dayton against VCU and got spanked. That team had a situation where point guard Jio Fontan had transferred and the team played much better after his arrival, and they closed by winning 6 of 8.

Yesterday, I looked at comparable teams to at-large hopefuls. RPI matters greatly. People will talk about St. Mary’s, but they are 27-5 and will have a RPI inside the top 40, and the majority of teams like St. Mary’s have gotten in the tournament as at-larges in the recent past.

Syracuse was at 37% chance of getting an at-large in my historical comparison, going into this game. With the drop in RPI after the loss, plus another loss to a tourney-caliber team, I’ve got them at 10%. Only two of their comparables (Indiana last year with an RPI of 58, Colorado in 2012 who were an auto bid but seeded 11th with a RPI of 65) reached the NCAA Tournament.

Of course, there’s one giant elephant in the room. If the committee gives a pass to Syracuse for the games that the Orangemen were without Jim Boeheim while he was serving suspension, then they are likely in. Without that exception, the profile simply doesn’t look like the teams that the committee has chosen in recent years when given the opportunity.