Bubble Assessment, per the Bracket Matrix, Has Syracuse, Vanderbilt, South Carolina Out
By Jason Lisk
The bubble has solidified. It appears it comes down to a group of 8 teams, 4 of whom are getting in as at-larges so long as Connecticut holds off Memphis in the American Conference. (That would shrink it one more spot and leave 3 at-larges for this group).
That group of 8: Michigan, St. Mary’s, San Diego State, Temple, Syracuse, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Monmouth
The Bracket Matrix has 58 entries today (including yours truly–here were my selections pending the conclusion of today’s game, though only the American result will force a change at the bubble).
Of those 58 entries, these are the at-large teams that (a) aren’t unanimous as being on every single bracket, but (b) listed in at least 10. (The next highest “bubble” team after this group is Valparaiso, who is on 5 of the 58 entries still).
I highlighted in green those that are in the field based on the consensus. Joe Lunardi, by the way, now has that exact consensus of teams.
My picks differ only in that I moved St. Mary’s out once San Diego State fell to an at-large selection Saturday night, as I felt the Aztecs were a bad comparison point for the Gaels. San Diego State beat California on a neutral court while St. Mary’s lost at Cal, and the Aztecs played a much tougher schedule (losses to Kansas, West Virginia, and Utah, all who will be on top 3 seed lines).
Keep in mind when they tout Lunardi on ESPN, that he had Oregon State completely out just a few days ago, still had Michigan out yesterday, and just switched Monmouth out (along with South Carolina) after having them projected in all week after their Monday loss to Iona, to now match consensus when he was way off it leading into Selection Sunday. He’ll probably get 67 of 68, or maybe 68 of 68 now.
Screen grab of yesterday’s listings: