Sweet 16 Picks Against the Spread: Underdogs Ready to Howl?
By Jason McIntyre
1st round picks ATS: 13-3-1
2nd round picks ATS: 5-3-1
There’s no way I can possibly keep this up, and I fully expect to whiff on all these and regress to the mean.
Gonzaga -4.5 vs Syracuse: Kyle Wiltjer is a zone killer. I told you Gonzaga’s Eric McClellan could slow Seton Hall’s Isaiah Whitehead (he did), and I think he’ll contain Michael Gbinije. This isn’t a good Syracuse team. It lost five of six heading into the tournament but drew a bad Dayton team and got lucky Michigan State lost. My only fear: Gonzaga, the team with the two best wins so far in the tournament, comes out and struggles against the 2-3 zone, bricking 3-pointers. A carbon copy of the Indiana 2013 Sweet 16 loss to Syracuse. The top-seeded Hoosiers were favored by 5.5. – LOSS
Oregon -2.5 vs Duke: My 2nd favorite pick of the Sweet 16. The line was quickly bet up to three. Ducks have the advantage in the backcourt and frontcourt and are deeper. Duke is the 2nd worst defensive team left in the tournament, and that’s a recipe for a lot of layups for the relentless Ducks.
A concern – Oregon does a poor job defending 3-pointers (242nd) and Duke is a very good 3-point shooting team (20th per Ken Pom). If Ingram and Allen combine for 50+, Duke isn’t getting blown out. – HIT
Iowa State +5 vs Virginia: This feels like the Cavaliers playing Belmont last year in the 1st round. Good offensive team. Ability to make a lot of 3-pointers and dominate the Cavaliers defense (which struggled against Butler). Toss in the fact that there should be a decided home court advantage for the Cyclones – game’s in Chicago, only 5.5 hours from Ames; how many people will take a day off work or skip classes and make the trip to Chicago for the weekend? – and I lean to the Cyclones covering in a high-scoring, close game. – LOSS
Villanova -4.5 vs Miami: The two-point guard Wildcats will take away Angel Rodriguez and dare anyone else to beat them. No pressure, Davon Reed and Sheldon McClellan. Miami simply doesn’t have the offense to hang with the Wildcats, and their only hope is the hottest 3-point shooting team in the tournament goes cold. If this game were in a dome, I’d take Miami to cover. – HIT
Maryland +6.5 vs Kansas: Feels like a sucker bet. Terps opened at seven and the line dropped half a point, despite the Jayhawks being utterly dominant for two straight games (16 wins in a row) and the Terps struggling at times with both opponents that went to the 2-3 zone and backed off last week. On paper, underachieving Maryland has the talent (so did UConn). The one clear advantage the Terps have is freshman bulldozer Diamond Stone, but the Jayhawks have 15 fouls between Landen Lucas, Cheick Diallo and Jamari Traylor to burn. The turnover-prone Terps should be able to hang and cover … unless Bill Self shocks the world and plays a zone. – MISS
Indiana +5.5 vs North Carolina: The picks are in order of confidence, and I probably should just leave this game off because I can’t get a grip on Indiana and I think whatever happens in the first 30 minutes, UNC will pull away in the 2nd half to win. Very curious to see if Thomas Bryant can duplicate his Kentucky performance (19 points) and if he goes against Brice Johnson.Will Tom Crean give OG Anunoby get some minutes against Johnson? Bracket note: Of my 14 brackets, my best chance at a nice payday is the one with Indiana winning it all (over Miami). – LOSS
No play:
I love Buddy Hield, so I’m rooting for him, but I think Texas A&M (+2.5) is the play, but I’m not going against Buddy and I don’t have as much confidence in A&M as I do the others. I have no idea what to make of Notre Dame and Wisconsin, but I’m rooting for the Irish (-1) and think they’ll win.