Final Four Picks Against the Spread
By Jason McIntyre
1st round picks ATS: 13-3-1
2nd round picks ATS: 5-3-1
Sweet 16 picks ATS: 2-4
Elite 8 picks ATS: 1-1
The hot start cooled, and trying to outsmart the room going with Kansas backfired. The key to remember about Saturday’s Final 4 games: location. NRG Stadium has been a nightmare for college basketball shooters in recent games that have taken place there. In the 2011 National Championshp, UConn shot 34 percent; Butler 18%. The teams combined to shoot 10-for-44 on 3-pointers. In the Final Four games, UConn shot 1-of-9 on 3-pointers but beat Kentucky, which shot 33 percent from the field and on 3-pointers. Butler beat VCU in the other semifinal, but both teams shot under 40 percent from the field and a combined 16-for-45 on 3-pointers. More recently, the South regional in 2015 was a nightmare: UCLA and Gonzaga shot a combined 6-for-32 on 3-pointers in the Sweet 16; Duke and Utah shot a combined 7-of-25. Duke overcame 37% shooting from the field to beat Gonzaga (2-of-10 on 3-pointers) in the Elite 8.
Now, the picks:
Villanova -2 vs Oklahoma: Love Buddy Hield, haven’t gone against the Sooners this tournament (2-1-1 ATS, with a non-cover vs VCU), but yes, the reliance on the 3-pointer in this setting worries me. I’m not sure Oklahoma will be as effective inside the arc as Villanova, which is a superior defensive team. Toss in the redemption story – Villanova lost to Oklahoma by 78-55 in December and I like Villanova to reach the Championship game. Most impressive so far for me about Villanova is that it has blown out teams making 3-pointers, and beat an excellent team when shooting only 4-of-22 on 3-pointers. Reserve Mikal Bridges had five steals against Kansas, and if Kris Jenkins gets in foul trouble (again), Bridges will be forced to play major minutes again. Inside, Daniel Ochefu vs Ryan Spangler seems like a wash given Spangler’s ability to step out and occasionally make 3-pointers (but 0-3 in the NCAA Tournament); both teams employ the dual PG attack, and neither should be rattled by pressure. Ken Pom has it 75-72, but interestingly the over/under started at 149 and has gone all the way down to 145.
UNC -9.5 vs Syracuse: The Tar Heels swept the season series, winning by 11 at the Carrier Dome in January, and by five at home in late February. In game one, the Orange blew a six-point lead with eight minutes left, mostly because UNC was too powerful inside (Isaiah Hicks scored 24 points); in game two Brice Johnson went for 14 points and 10 rebounds and Syracuse’s late charge fell short. Johnson had a career-high eight assists in the first game, and he’s the perfect high post player against the 2-3 zone. Syracuse has needed late comebacks to stun Gonzaga and Virginia in the tournament; the Tar Heels might be the best 2nd half team in college basketball. Will Marcus Paige be rattled against Syracuse pressure? The guess here is no. Justin Jackson, a very good defender, will likely draw Malachi Richardson, who torched Virginia. So who defends Michael Gbinije? The only way I can see Syracuse winning: Grab an early lead and force matchup problems on the Tar Heels, who then have to abandon their size advantage. And Marcus Paige (13-for-27 on 3-pointers in the tournament) resorts to the 34% shooter from deep that he was during the season. I’m surprised Ken Pom has it only 76-69 for UNC, given Syracuse’s struggles scoring for long stretches this season and in the tournament.