North Carolina vs Villanova Championship Game Pick Against the Spread
By Jason McIntyre
1st round picks ATS: 13-3-1
2nd round picks ATS: 5-3-1
Sweet 16 picks ATS: 2-4
Elite 8 picks ATS: 1-1
Final 4 picks ATS: 2-0
If you’re the type of casual gambler who doesn’t gamble on baseball or avoids wagering on the NBA postseason, UNC vs Villanova is your last gambling opportunity until college football and the NFL begins. A scary thought, for sure.
Line open: UNC -2.5. Some offshore books have moved to 3.
UNC has won all of its tournament games by 10+. If you watched closely, a theme emerged in four of the five games – the Tar Heels looked merely OK for the first 25-ish minutes, and their opponents were able to keep things close. (UNC blasted Indiana with hot perimeter shooting.) But then their size and depth wore teams down, and they pulled away easily in all of them. I believe UNC has covered in the 2nd half of all of its tournament games.
Villanova’s lone close game was against Kansas. The Wildcats shot 4-of-18 on 3-pointers in that one and still won (more on that in a second). Here’s what they’ve shot from deep in every other tournament game:
UNCA: 13-28, 46%
Iowa: 10-19, 52%
Miami: 10-15, 66%
Oklahoma: 11-18, 61%
That’s obscene. And it gets worse, UNC fans – the Tar Heels rank 247th according to Ken Pom defending 3-pointers. Indiana made 13-of-31 three-pointers (41% from deep) and Notre Dame was 9-of-18. Big advantage to the Wildcats here, though there is no chance they can repeat their historical night shooting against Oklahoma (71%).
Back to the Kansas game. Villanova played brilliant defense on Kansas senior star Perry Ellis, holding the forward to 1-of-5 shooting with quick double-teams from everywhere. He was rattled by the defensive alignment (one assist, four turnovers) and the entire Kansas offense was disjointed. Wayne Selden shot 0-for-6 on 3-pointers and point guard Frank Mason was 1-of-6. Kansas, which ranked 87th in the country in offensive rebound percentage, only collected six.
Villanova will surely pack the paint again and dare UNC to make open shots. The Tar Heels were 4-of-17 on 3-pointers vs Syracuse’s zone. It didn’t matter because UNC collected 16 offensive rebounds. The Tar Heels rank 3rd in the country in offensive rebound percentage.
As for individual matchups, Justin Jackson vs Josh Hart should be fun. Ditto Ryan Arcidiacono vs Marcus Paige. The two players who absolutely can’t get in foul trouble in this game: Brice Johnson of UNC and Daniel Ochefu of Villanova. Johnson is the best big on the court passing and scoring, and I believe he’ll defend Kris Jenkins (15-of-31 3-pointers in the tournament). Also, I can’t see Johnson getting shut down the way Ellis was. The second is Ochefu, Villanova’s 6-foot-11 center who may be able to mitigate UNC’s rebounding advantage. His backup, Darryl Reynolds, gives away size to Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks and Johnson.
Ken Pom: Villanova 77, UNC 76.
The pick: UNC -2.5. I’ll go with a slightly lower-scoring game: 69-63.