2016 MLB Draft Will Make Or Break A.J. Preller And The Padres

A.J. Preller has gone from the toast of baseball to one of the most second-guessed figures in the sport. In the span of 18 months, Preller’s reputation has taken a gigantic hit and his methods are now widely questioned. Major League Baseball’s erstwhile golden boy has a chance to shift his status again on Thursday and if he doesn’t, his time with the San Diego Padres could wind up being an all-time flop.

The 2016 MLB Draft will make or break A.J. Preller.

Preller was the talk of baseball in December of 2014. The new general manager of the Padres took the sport by storm. In the span of just a few days, he made a number of huge trades to reshape his franchise. He acquired three All-Stars, adding Matt Kemp, Derek Norris and Justin Upton, while also picking up former A.L. Rookie of the Year Wil Myers. Less than two months later, he signed a top-of-the-rotation horse in James Shields, and hours before 2015’s Opening Day he added another All-Star in Craig Kimbrel. It was one of the craziest offseasons Major League Baseball had ever seen.

The moves were widely hailed as “bold” and Preller was lauded for having the audacity to make them. Unfortunately, none of it worked. The Padres tanked, finishing the season with baseball’s eighth-worst record (74-88). In the process of making all those moves, Preller decimated San Diego’s farm system. While people close to the franchise claim the Cornell graduate wasn’t a big fan of the prospects he shipped out of town, he left the cupboard mostly bare except for its top two prospects: outfielder Hunter Renfroe and catcher Austin Hedges. On top of that, by signing Shields, Preller forfeited the team’s first-round pick (No. 13) in the 2015 MLB Draft.

After the disastrous 2015 season, the Padres made an immediate pivot. Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy were allowed to leave in free agency, netting the team two first-round compensation picks. Preller then shipped Kimbrel to the Boston Red Sox for a huge haul that included the franchise’s new top two prospects, center fielder Manuel Margot and shortstop Javier Guerra. This weekend, Preller cut bait on Shields, shipping him to the Chicago White Sox less than 16 months after signing him to a four-year, $75 million deal.

Preller obviously knows the moves he made in the winter of 2014-15 didn’t pay off. Now he’s reversing course as quickly as possible. The problem is, things are moving so fast in the wrong direction that, like the Titanic, he may not be able to avoid the iceberg floating in front of him. He has one chance to make this right: the 2016 MLB Draft.

Preller and the Padres will have six of the first 85 picks when the draft kicks off on Thursday. This will be a unique chance to stock the franchise’s farm system with prospects he believes in.

It will be years before we know whether or not Preller’s picks pan out, but the perception of how the Padres do this week will speak volumes. Perception is reality when you’re a general manager. If industry insiders think Preller and his scouts knock it out of the park, it will buy him a lot of time to continue building. If it is reviewed as a flop, he may not last long.

Padres management still believes in Preller. They have essentially given him a blank check in the draft and on the international market with which to remake his system. San Diego is poised to spend upwards of $30 million when the international free agency period opens on July 2. As it stands right now, the Padres are expected to sign six of the top 30 players available.

Preller came in with a bang in 2014. His bold strategy failed miserably, but now he has a golden opportunity to right the ship. If he can pull off a huge win this week at the draft, then continue that success in July, he could be back to where he was during those crazy days in December of 2014. If not, he should probably start polishing up that resume.