NBA Teams Draft Foreign Players as Lottery Tickets, But They Don't Cash Anymore Than Others

Last night, the Boston Celtics drew some boos from their fans for drafting multiple Croatian players. Of course, San Antonio built a core part of their teams by stashing foreign players, like Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli, with later picks in the draft.

Teams that go the international route are banking on hitting a lottery ticket outside of the NBA Lottery selections (the top 14 now). Parker and Ginobli are two prominent examples, but are the hit rates any higher for international players?

I went through the 1997 to 2011 drafts (there were no foreign players selected in 1996 in the second round, and it gives us five years for the most recent draft to evaluate). I marked a player as a boom if they became a star, by getting over 60 win shares (via basketball-reference.com data) or averaging over 6 win shares per season if they have played less than 10 years. I marked a player as a good pick if they reached 30 win shares or averaged at least 3 win shares per year if playing less than ten seasons.

Here are the results:

INTERNATIONAL PLAYERS

Selected between Picks 15 and 30: 6.1% Boom, 20.4% Good

Selected After Pick 30: 2.1% Boom, 8.2% Good

COLLEGE PLAYERS AND STRAIGHT OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL AMERICANS

Selected between Picks 15 and 30: 5.9% Boom, 27.7% Good

Selected After Pick 30: 1.9% Boom, 7.3% Good

For the post-lottery picks in the top 30, the Boom rates are basically equal, though the college players are safer bets to be at least good players.

Once you get into the second round, the boom rates again are basically identical, and long shots. This data doesn’t include the 2012 draft, which produced Draymond Green, who would qualify as a boom. Since 2000, the boom rates for second round picks is higher for college players. The two international booms outside the top 30 picks are Ginobli and Marc Gasol.

There may have been a time in the late 1990’s that there was a market inefficiency that some top clubs could take advantage of when it came to foreign players and stashing late picks, but it doesn’t seem to have lasted. All second round picks are basically lottery tickets, with less than a 10% chance that they will be a good long-term starter and about a 2% chance of getting a perennial All-Star. That your team took someone that you never heard of neither improves or reduces those odds.