Kevin Durant is Like Most Great Young Stars--Without a Title, They Moved On
By Jason Lisk
Kevin Durant is unique in terms of just how good the team he is joining is, combined with how good he has been to this point in his career. Those are both issues of magnitude. What is completely normal is that a young star, once he has been unable to win a title with his original team, would choose to go elsewhere.
I went through the yearly win shares rankings at basketball-reference.com, and compared that to titles won by players at each ranking, going back to the 1970 season. For example, the #1 player in the league has won the title 14 of 47 (30%) and that is by far the highest percentage chance of any position (not surprising). I then took those percentages and applied them to each player through age 27.
Here is a list of all the players since 1970 who were at least 0.50 titles below average by the end of their age 27 season, based on what you would expect given their individual statistics.
LeBron James won his first title at age 27, after changing teams. Michael Jordan won his first at age 27, and the Bulls would go on and win the next two as well. Two guys who do not appear on this list are absent only because they won titles at age 27, after moving on from their original teams (Moses Malone and Shaquille O’Neal). Of the players here listed who had not won a title, only Nowitzki, Moncrief, Malone, and Robinson remained with their original teams throughout their primes. Durant ranks only behind Kevin Garnett in championship odds based on individual performance to date, and Garnett would get his a few years later–after moving to Boston.