Will France Be Good Enough To Beat Depleted Germany?
By Ty Duffy
France plays Germany in the Euro 2016 semifinals. The two were favorites entering the tournament. This is the match everyone has been anticipating. The winner will be a strong favorite in the final. Who that winner will be comes down to two broad questions.
How Good Are The French?
France are in the semifinal. They have a 4-0-1 record. Of the five players who have scored three goals at the tournament, three – Antoine Griezmann, Dimitri Payet, and Olivier Giroud – are French. Les Bleus, on paper, are where we expected. But, it’s still not clear how good this team is.
The French were touted before the tournament, with good reason. They have a strong and deep midfield. They are flush with exciting young attackers going forward. Paul Pogba is the most gifted player at Euro 2016. Tournament hosts tend to do well. France won the last two tournaments on home soil.
However, Les Bleus, while doing enough, have not clicked for 90 minutes yet. The four wins came against Romania (89th minute), Albania (90th minute), Ireland (trailed 1-0 at half time), and Iceland. Switzerland, the one opponent even approaching Germany’s strength, held France to a 0-0 draw. The Iceland goals were the first goals in the first half. France’s last strong opposition in a competitive match … Germany in the 2014 World Cup quarterfinals.
France will rely on Olivier Giroud to be impactful up front against equally matched opposition, which, as Arsenal fans can attest, is not a given. No opponent has tested the iffy French back line.
Patrice Evra was an excellent left back in his prime. That prime was 6-8 years ago. He’s 35. Partnering Laurent Koscielny in the middle will be young Samuel Umtiti (had first international cap against Iceland) or perpetual disaster risk Adil Rami.
Essentially, we don’t know what French team will show up, when, for how long, or whether that will be enough to get past the reigning World Champions.
How Will Germany Handle Attrition?
The Germans have had an extra day’s rest. But, Germany played a more grueling, emotional quarterfinal, escaping Italy on penalties. They suffered substantial attrition that may limit them against France.
A resurrected Mario Gomez was proving Germany’s best option up front. He’s out for the tournament with a hamstring injury. There’s no classic center forward to replace him. Expect a return to Mario Gotze as the “false nine,” which looked toothless to start the tournament.
Central midfield is a worry. Sami Khedira went down against Italy. He has been ruled out of the semifinal. His presumed replacement Bastian Schweinsteiger strained his knee, won’t play 90 minutes, and may not play at all. That all-around midfielder role may be filled by 22-year-old Emre Can of Liverpool, who has just six caps.
Mats Hummels getting fit helped Germany’s back line settle. He’s suspended. Benedikt Howedes is a capable veteran. He’s played in big matches for Germany, but mostly as a left back. Even a modest decline in central defense may prove fatal. France, at least on paper, have the best, most multifaceted attack at the Euros.
Other national teams have talent. Germany has talent and a coherent, resolute spine. That spine has carried the team through tough matches in the past. That spine is where injuries and suspensions hit Germany the hardest.