Dak Prescott Has a Legitimate Case for MVP So Far, but Tom Brady is Surging

The leading MVP candidate after 7 weeks in NFL may have only played three games. Tom Brady has been the best QB so far in 2016. Remember when the Patriots got off to a 3-0 start while he was suspended, and then there was talk about his value? Well, the Patriots are a pretty darn good team and Belichick is a great coach. But with Brady, they’ve gone from having to work around the QB position (particularly once Jacoby Brissett was forced into action) into dominating.

Meanwhile, Dak Prescott, a rookie only starting because Tony Romo couldn’t stay healthy again, arguably has the best case for MVP among those that have played every game.

I went through ESPN’s QBR Ratings by week, compared each QB to the others who played the same opponent, and assigned a Win/Loss/Tie record. Not all schedules are created equal. (I counted all games where two QBs were within 10 points in the QBR score as a tie in putting together these rankings. Here is every QB that has had at least 3 games with 20 qualifying plays.

Brady and Prescott come out on top, ahead of Matt Ryan, the struggling Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Stafford. And no, I can’t explain the QBR for Blaine Gabbert. Meanwhile, Blake Bortles has been brutal, and Carson Wentz, for all the praise he got early, is not viewed particularly well by QBR, dropping to last once we adjust for opponents (he was already 29th in average QBR score).