College Football "Way Too Early" Top 25 Rankings For 2017
By Ty Duffy
The 2016 season is over. Thus, it’s time for the traditional 2017 “Way Too Early” Top 25 rankings.
We use a simple methodology for these. A weighted three-year SRS formula using Sports Reference data provides the basis. Teams were adjusted for standard factors that could affect progression: coach hiring/departures, returning starters, returning quarterbacks, etc. Future schedules are noted where relevant but were not factored into the rankings (because that would be dumb).
Here are the Top 25 teams. Argue at will.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
No surprise here. Alabama has a proven development plan. They bring in the nation’s best recruiting class every year. Sending five players to the first round of the draft would be just another year. They either win the national title or come really darn close. Alabama does have to replace a historically, even by Alabama standards, talented and deep defensive front. But, of course, Alabama’s offense has Jalen Hurts and Bo Scarborough coming back … and potentially improving …
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State may have been the nation’s least experienced team in 2016, after a “historic draft class.” That team finished 11-1 and went to the College Football Playoff. Yes, the Buckeyes need to get better at passing. But, we’re still talking about a senior QB J.T. Barrett who is 26-4 as a starter. Besides finding wideouts, Ohio State will have to fill holes on defense. The Buckeyes lose their most productive pass rusher, best linebacker, and three players from the secondary who may be early round draft picks.
3. Clemson Tigers
Clemson’s defense should not have been this great in 2016. Their scary defensive front was young. The sophomores and freshmen who were key contributors will return and get better. Their offensive line should mature as well and be less of a liability. The Tigers retain ample offensive skill talent. However, Deshaun Watson moves on to the NFL. His dynamic play has made the difference between “very good” Clemson and “national title winner” Clemson.
4. Washington Huskies
Washington is just getting started under Chris Petersen. Quarterback Jake Browning should be among the Heisman favorites as a junior. Myles Gaskin and much of the 2016 team are back as well. Though, the Huskies do lose WR John Ross and DB Budda Baker, their biggest playmakers on offense and defense respectively. The 2017 schedule looks light in the difficulty department.
5. USC Trojans
Any reason to hype USC is bound to cause a frenzy. Cue the dramatic Rose Bowl win. Quarterback Sam Darnold will be among the top Heisman contenders entering 2017 and may live up to the billing. The Trojans, you won’t believe, have recruited a lot of talent around him. If you’re concerned for the immediate future, it’s the probable losses of Juju Smith-Schuster and Adoree’ Jackson and the significant offensive line turnover.
6. LSU Tigers
Les Miles has left. But, the offseason song, for LSU, remains the same under Coach O. The Tigers will pay their customary toll to the NFL Draft, will still have a lot of talent on campus, and will be a strong bet to put forward an intimidating defense and a power rushing attack with Derrius Guice. LSU will feast on bad teams. But, will the Tigers be able to pass when it counts?
7. Oklahoma Sooners
Bob Stoops has been winning big games in conference. The Sooners have reached “clear favorites in the Big 12 until proven otherwise” status. Baker Mayfield returns. But, will Oklahoma have the pieces around him? The Sooners lose both 1,000-yard rushers Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine as well as WR Dede Westbrook, a 1,500-yard receiver. That triumvirate combined for 47 touchdowns on offense and special teams last season.
8. Florida State Seminoles
Florida State should have a scary defense with a veteran, aggressive front, another year of experience in the secondary, and healthy DB Derwin James. There’s a lot to like with QB Deondre Francois returning for his second year. Though, the Seminoles lose Dalvin Cook to the draft and still have issues to sort out on the offensive line.
9. Michigan Wolverines
Michigan was loaded for 2016. 2017 will be different. The Wolverines lose a ton of seniors and multiple first round draft picks. The upperclassmen classes, Brady Hoke’s small 2014 class and Jim Harbaugh’s cobbled together 2015 crew, are light in numbers. Michigan should get better QB play, be it Speight or the young gun who beats him. The underclassmen have upside and attitude. But, any injuries along the offensive and defensive lines could be devastating.
10. Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin should be well equipped to do Wisconsin stuff. The Badgers’ young offensive line should develop for 2017. That should ease matters for Alex Hornibrook and whoever replaces RB Corey Clement. The Badgers return most of a strong defense and are deep enough at linebacker to weather losing Watt and Biegel. Those looking for impediments on the schedule will find few. Wisconsin plays one team in our Top 25, Michigan, at home in November.
11. Stanford Cardinal
Stanford is coming off its fifth 10-win season in six years. Trust the consistency. Bryce Love, who averaged seven yards/carry as a sophomore last year, should soften the blow from losing Christian McCaffrey. The bigger issue will be on defense. Stanford should be solid at the back end. But, they lost disruptive, probable first-rounder Solomon Thomas and a lot of senior depth on the defensive line.
12. Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State came out of nowhere in 2016, which is why our formula is doing some brake pumping. Most of the offense besides receiver Chris Godwin returns, including Trace McSorely and standout running back Saquon Barkley. The offensive line, which started three freshmen in the Rose Bowl, should progress. Penn State’s defense brings a veteran core back but loses both starting DEs. We did not knock the Nittany Lions down for McSorely’s trademark home run/salute celebration. But, we should have.
13. Auburn Tigers
Auburn was formidable when they had healthy, stable quarterback play and was feeble when they did not. If the Tigers can get that in 2017, there’s a strong core coming back. Johnson and Pettway return in the backfield. Three of Auburn’s top four receivers were freshmen last year and should improve. The Tigers lose Carl Lawson, but keep most of their strong defense. This team needs a few tweaks, not an overhaul.
14. Miami Hurricanes
Media members will have eight months to talk themselves into Mark Richt and Miami. The hype won’t be entirely unfounded. Miami’s leading rusher and receiver, both underclassmen, return. They bring back a play-making front seven with four players who had 10-plus TFL last year. Two of those were freshmen. Not putting them at FSU/Clemson level, but the Hurricanes should be pretty good if they have a quarterback. That’s still an “if” at this juncture.
15. Texas Longhorns
Charlie Strong thought Texas would be a 10-win team in 2017, with or without him. That’s not inconceivable. Strong recruited well. This was a very young team with freshmen and sophomores throughout the two-deep. The Longhorns have a quarterback to develop in Shane Buechele. He’s now being coached by Tom Herman. If Herman is the coach many believe he is, this team should get rolling from the start, especially against what looks like a soft schedule.
16. Louisville Cardinals
No relevant program needed the 2016 season to end more than Louisville. Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson returns for his third year. Bobby Petrino is calling plays. That and good health will paper over some cracks. The Cardinals defense drops a few veterans but should still be effective. Some concerns on offense where Louisville loses its leading non-Jackson rusher, top three receivers, and three offensive line starters.
17. Florida Gators
Jim McElwain had to relay the foundation of Florida’s offense. We should see some progress in 2017, as the 2016 two-deep was almost entirely freshmen and sophomores. Better quarterback play would be helpful. The bigger trouble may be on defense, where the Gators lose multiple All-American caliber players from what was arguably college football’s best secondary. The defensive foundation Will Muschamp left has been what has carried Florida the past two years.
18. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State should be loaded on offense next year. Mason Rudolph and James Washington opted to come back for their senior years. The Cowboys’ leading rusher was a freshman. Most of the offensive line is back. This team should score some points. There are more concerns on defense, where losing Vincent Taylor won’t help. Fortunately, there are no MAC teams on the schedule. Will Mike Gundy finally got a hair cut?
19. Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee was last year’s “throw them in the top 5-10” team. They won eight games. Butch Jones has recruited well. The Vols have talent to work with despite losing Josh Dobbs, Alvin Kamara, and the best player from each phase of the defense. This team should still be at least among the SEC East favorites. That said, Tennessee has still not hired an offensive coordinator. Butch Jones is clearly on the hot seat. The flux makes it hard to expect much from this team.
20. Virginia Tech Hokies
Virginia Tech bounced back to 10 wins in year one under Justin Fuente. But, they may not close the rest of the gap to the ACC contenders in 2017. That “Bud Foster” defense has a lot of young playmakers coming back. Though the Hokies’ offense takes a hit. Star QB Jerod Evans, two of his best receivers, and the entire right side of the line will not return.
21. Utah Utes
Another “trust the consistency” pick. The Utes lose a lot on the defensive line, but should still be strong, physical, and solid throughout. But, upperclassmen must step forward on offense. Utah loses most of the offensive line, their best rusher Joe Williams, and their best receiver Tim Patrick. Utah will need a great leap forward from senior QB Troy Williams. Win a game they shouldn’t. Lose a game they shouldn’t. Finish just off the Pac 12 South title. Sounds about right.
22. Texas A&M Aggies
Oh, Texas A&M. Kevin Sumlin may have the hottest seat. It’s not clear he has a quarterback. The offense has standouts with Trayveon Williams and Christian Kirk. No burdensome questions about how they could possibly not be using their receiver depth, as it is departing for the NFL. The defense as a whole may coalesce more, and not be much better losing Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall up front. Expect the team to start hot and be ranked in the Top 10 by Bama time and probably not finish.
23. Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss had a brutal schedule, two brutal losses after taking leads against FSU and Alabama, a brutal finish with Chad Kelly going down, and could be in for a brutal offseason with NCAA sanctions looming. That said, this was a Top 10-ish team the two previous seasons. There should be some bounceback. A highly-touted young QB Shea Patterson and a bevy of receivers who stepped forward as freshmen last year is a good place for Hugh Freeze to start.
24. West Virginia Mountaineers
After a suspension and a transfer from Florida, Will Grier is eligible to return. That should soften the blow of losing Skyler Howard. He and Dana Holgorsen have a number of skill players returning to make offense with. However, last year’s senior-laden defense could take a step backward. The Mountaineers also face a tougher Big 12 schedule with five conference road games.
25. Boise State Broncos
Boise State hung on to head coach Bryan Harsin, whose name came up for Minnesota and other jobs. Quarterback Brett Rypien is back for his junior year, after averaging 9.3 yards/att as a sophomore. Losing Jeremy McNichols (1709 yards, 23 touchdowns) complicates matters. So does losing their top receiver and three fifth-year offensive line starters.