Ranking the Potential Hall of Famers from 2016: Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
By Jason Lisk
Sampling players who played in the 1976, 1986, and 1996 seasons, history shows us that about 45 future Hall of Famers will be playing at any given time. So we’ll use that as the estimate for the number who were likely on the field, from young guys to those about to call it a career.
Let’s try to assess the likelihood of those who played this year of eventually reaching Canton, based on their performance to date and historical precedent.
Today, we’ll start with the wide receivers and tight ends. I would estimate that about 5-6 wide receivers and 3-4 tight ends playing this last season will eventually be in Canton.
WIDE RECEIVERS
LARRY FITZGERALD (100%)
13 Seasons, 10 Pro Bowls (2nd most all-time among receivers), 1 All-Pro
Larry Fitzgerald keeps going, not showing signs of slowing down in Arizona. After a period of uneven quarterback play and looking like he was going to be passed on his own team by Michael Floyd, Fitzgerald is still there and Floyd is now gone. A decade of pro bowl selections should have Fitzgerald–flawless on the field and off so far–sweeping into Canton soon after he is eligible.
Most Similar WRs: Tim Brown*, Charley Taylor*, James Lofton*, Cris Carter*, Andre Reed*, Andre Johnson+, Paul Warfield*, Fred Biletnikoff*, Steve Largent*, Harold Jackson
ANDRE JOHNSON (90%)
13 Seasons, 7 Pro Bowls, 2 All-Pros
Andre Johnson’s last few years were forgettable, but he was one of the best wide receivers in the league in his prime. The receiver position is going to lead to some debates–he and Steve Smith could split votes as we’ve seen with Harrison, Carter, etc., but he should get in comfortably.
Most Similar WRs: James Lofton*, Cris Carter*, Fred Biletnikoff*, Charley Taylor*, Paul Warfield*, Steve Largent*, Steve Smith+, Andre Reed*, Torry Holt+, Harold Jackson
STEVE SMITH (85%)
Smith had a great career, and once people compare the quarterbacks he played with to other Hall of Famers, he should find himself in Canton. He will also be a quote machine in retirement and likely ever-present, which won’t hurt with voters.
13 Seasons, 5 Pro Bowls, 2 All-Pros
Most Similar WRs: Harold Jackson, Fred Biletnikoff*, Wes Welker+, Andre Johnson+, Henry Ellard, Don Maynard*, Cris Carter*, Michael Irvin*, Art Monk*, Cliff Branch
WR AJ GREEN (55%)
Green has made the pro bowl ever year. While Julio and Antonio may be on top now, Green is going to rack up enough pro bowls if he stays healthy. His chances of getting to Canton likely depend on just staying healthy and reasonably productive past age 30.
6 seasons, 6 Pro Bowls, 0 All-Pro
Most Similar WRs: Mark Clayton, Tommy McDonald*, Anthony Miller, James Lofton*, Isaac Curtis, Steve Largent*, Paul Warfield*, Cris Collinsworth, Keyshawn Johnson, Jimmy Smith
WR ANTONIO BROWN (50%)
Antonio Brown has been the best receiver in the league the last few years. Interestingly, there are plenty of guys who had runs like Brown who are not in Canton (Herman Moore and Sterling Sharpe come to mind). If Brown can avoid a huge dropoff, though, he should make it because the selections tend to go to guys who have rings and/or play at a good level for a long time.
7 seasons, 5 Pro Bowls, 3 All-Pros
Most Similar WRs: Sterling Sharpe, Randy Moss+, Herman Moore, Calvin Johnson+, Chad Johnson, Gene Washington, Cliff Branch, Andre Johnson+, Drew Pearson, Terrell Owens+
WR JULIO JONES (50%)
Julio profiles similarly to Brown and has roughly the same chance. Stay healthy and rack up the stats and he will be on his way.
6 seasons, 4 Pro Bowls, 2 All-Pros
Most Similar WRs: Chad Johnson, Antonio Brown+, John Jefferson, Bob Hayes*, Herman Moore, Calvin Johnson+, Charley Taylor*, Torry Holt+, Sterling Sharpe, Steve Smith+
WR ODELL BECKHAM, JR. (45%)
3 seasons, 3 Pro Bowls, 0 All-Pros
Odell has had one of the best starts for a wide receiver ever. That doesn’t always translate into immortality when it comes to the Hall of Fame. But it doesn’t hurt.
Most Similar WRs: Cris Collinsworth, Isaac Curtis, AJ Green+, Charley Taylor*, DeSean Jackson, Mark Clayton, Bob Hayes*, Louis Lipps, Mark Duper, James Lofton*
WR BRANDON MARSHALL (30%)
Marshall–who has never made the playoffs, which will be held against him if that holds when he retires–is on the outside looking in. If he can put up a couple more top level seasons, he can change that.
11 Seasons, 6 Pro Bowls, 1 All-Pro
Most Similar WRs: Chad Johnson, Fred Biletnikoff*, James Lofton*, Steve Largent*, Harold Jackson, Andre Reed*, Steve Smith, Andre Rison, Charley Taylor*, Gary Clark
WR ANQUAN BOLDIN (20%)
Anquan Boldin is 14th in career receiving yards. Everyone in front of him is either in Canton or likely will be soon. Of course, Henry Ellard is 15th, and he’s not in.
Boldin has longevity, counting stats, and a ring with Baltimore, but not the peak seasons. I won’t rule him out, but it would be an upset if he gets selected given the other receivers he will be up against.
14 Seasons, 3 Pro Bowls, 0 All-Pro
Most Similar WRs: Hines Ward, Carroll Dale, Donald Driver, Art Monk*, Rod Smith, Stanley Morgan, Isaac Bruce, Charlie Joiner*, Keenan McCardell, John Stallworth*
WR DEZ BRYANT (15%)
Injuries have robbed Bryant of a couple of seasons, and he hasn’t been consistently great like others ahead of him on this list. That said, he’s a clear physical freak and if he can put together some elite seasons in the next few years can shoot up.
7 seasons, 2 Pro Bowls, 1 All-Pro
Most Similar WRs: Dwight Clark, Wesley Walker, Alfred Jenkins, Derrick Mason, Gene Washington, Lynn Swann, Wes Welker+, Al Toon, Art Monk*, Roy Jefferson
WR DEMARYIUS THOMAS (15%)
Thomas would need to have some great seasons, or play a long time, to move up, but he’s at least got an outside case if he can keep adding to it in the next five years.
7 seasons, 3 Pro Bowls, 0 All-Pro
Most Similar WRs: DeSean Jackson, Isaac Bruce+, Anquan Boldin, Anthony Carter, Cris Collinsworth, Eric Moulds, Keyshawn Johnson, Steve Largent*, Mark Duper, Joe Horn
TIGHT ENDS
ANTONIO GATES (100%)
14 Seasons, 8 Pro Bowls, 3 All-Pros
Most Similar TEs: Shannon Sharpe*, Jason Witten+, Charlie Sanders*, Tony Gonzalez+, John Mackey*, Kellen Winslow*, Mike Ditka*, Jackie Smith*, Keith Jackson, Dave Casper*
JASON WITTEN (100%)
14 Seasons, 10 Pro Bowls, 2 All-Pros
Most Similar TEs: Antonio Gates+, Shannon Sharpe*, Tony Gonzalez+, Mike Ditka*, Charlie Sanders*, Jackie Smith*, Riley Odoms, Steve Jordan, John Mackey*, Ozzie Newsome*
ROB GRONKOWSKI (80%)
7 Seasons, 4 Pro Bowls, 3 All-Pros
Most Similar TEs: John Mackey*, Charlie Sanders*, Kellen Winslow*, Keith Jackson, Tony Gonzalez+, Antonio Gates+, Mark Bavaro, Mike Ditka*, Todd Christensen, Ben Coates
JIMMY GRAHAM (15%)
7 Seasons, 3 Pro Bowls, 1 All-Pro
Most Similar TEs: Ozzie Newsome*, Jerry Smith, Bob Trumpy, Jeremy Shockey, Rich Caster, Raymond Chester, Todd Christensen, Dallas Clark, Russ Francis, Jackie Smith*