Bubble Breakdown: The Bubble Now Centers on Kansas State and Wake Forest after Both Got Key Wins

The NCAA selection committee will begin meeting next week, but teams are starting to lock down spots as games dwindle. As of right now, I have 31 “locks” (i.e., they are in even if they don’t win another game) from 9 different conferences.

That leaves us with at least 22 at-large selections coming from that group, out of a possible 36. If any team not on the below list wins the conference tourney, then the remaining spots shrinks further.

Here are my locks:

Big 12: Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma State

ACC: North Carolina, Louisville, Duke, Florida State, Notre Dame, Virginia, Miami, Virginia Tech

Big East: Villanova, Butler, Creighton

Big Ten: Purdue, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Maryland

SEC: Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina

Pac-12: UCLA, Oregon, Arizona

American: Cincinnati, SMU

West Coast: Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

Atlantic-10: Dayton

That leaves this as my assessment of teams that could get an at-large selection, if they do not win the conference tournament. Teams in red would be in right now. Teams in grey are in that last 4 in cut line area, depending on how many spots shrink with conference tourney results. The darker grey represents teams from mid-major conferences that are currently projected to secure an auto bid, but could still be in at-large consideration if they do not.

The teams in blue are on the outside, needing a result. Those further down the list in dark blue probably need deep runs and multiple top 50 wins in the conference tourney to get in the discussion, but because of the remaining possibilities, are still technically alive.