Another year, another case of “what will the committee do with Syracuse?” I’ve got the Orangemen projected barely in right now, and that’s in large part because of the decision last year to put a team with a low RPI in, when they had more quality wins than teams in front of them.
How much did the Boeheim suspension results have to do with last year’s decision? Right now, Syracuse again has a RPI ranking that would put them out, but has six top 50 wins (though one was against Monmouth, who is right on the cutline of dropping out after losing in the conference tourney, and won’t be in the NCAA field). A loss to Miami would keep them with a bad RPI. A win would make things more comfortable.
The other uncomfortable team is Illinois State. There’s simply no way they aren’t right on the cutline and sweating results. If they get in, they will be in Dayton. Right now, I’m projecting them in, but a bid thief situation, or one of the team just below them getting a win, could change that.
Here are my projections by seed line for the NCAA Tournament, at the conclusion of the last games of the regular season and heading full-on into Championship Week.
This is the seed list. Below are projections for each regional:
These are the first ten out as of right now. Kansas State is right on the edge, and needs to beat Baylor. Rhode Island and Iowa need to add big wins in the conference tourney. California needs to reach the Pac-12 final.
Here are the bracketing projections by regional