Fantasy Football Running Back Sleepers: Focus on Teams With Rookie Running Backs
By Jason Lisk
Nailing a later round running back in fantasy football can propel you to a championship. It’s also really hard to do, and each year may provide only a handful of opportunities. Most of the top scorers at running back tend to be drafted early.
I went through the last decade of fantasy football draft information, and found the top 12 scorers at running back among those drafted on average outside the top three rounds (in a 12-team league).
Here is a summary of those sleepers:
2008, DeAngelo Williams, Carolina
Fantasy Points Scored (non-PPR): 286
Fantasy Point Rank at RB: #1
Average draft position for team: Jonathan Stewart, RB23, Overall 55; Williams RB31, Overall 80
Jonathan Stewart was drafted in the first round that year by the Panthers, and Williams (himself a 1st rounder two years earlier) had topped at at 717 rushing yards the year before while playing in a platoon. The general expectation was that Stewart would take over, but he battled injuries and Williams went on to lead the NFL in touchdowns scored.
2008, Michael Turner, Atlanta
Fantasy Points Scored (non-PPR): 273
Fantasy Point Rank at RB: #2
Average draft position for team: Turner, RB20, Overall 43; Jerious Norwood, RB44, Overall 123
Turner had been LaDainian Tomlinson’s backup in San Diego for four seasons, and signed with an Atlanta team that would be starting a rookie quarterback in Matt Ryan and had been a disaster the year before. Turner was fully expected to be the top back but there was uncertainty about his and the team’s situation, which kept his value in the 4th round. He broke out and the team went to the postseason.
2009, Ray Rice, Baltimore
Fantasy Points Scored (non-PPR): 249
Fantasy Point Rank at RB: #4
Average draft position for team: Rice, RB 19, Overall 40; Willis McGahee RB48, Overall 138
Ray Rice was entering his 2nd year, and expected to take over for veteran Willis McGahee after being little used as a rookie. McGahee’s presence kept Rice’s cost down (4th round) but he went on to a top 5 finish in his first season starting.
2015, Devonta Freeman, Atlanta
Fantasy Points Scored (non-PPR): 243
Fantasy Point Rank at RB: #1
Average draft position for team: Tevin Coleman, RB36, Overall 87; Freeman RB41, Overall 109
Freeman had just been drafted the year before, but when Tevin Coleman was drafted, the expectation was that it would be a committee with Coleman slightly more favored. As it turned out, Coleman was hurt and Freeman (like DeAngelo Williams 7 years earlier) exploded to a top overall finish.
2008 matt forte, Chicago
Fantasy Points Scored (non-PPR): 243
Fantasy Point Rank at RB: #3
Average draft position for team: Kevin Jones, RB27, Overall 67; Forte, RB28, Overall 69
Forte, the second round pick of the Bears, was seen as platoon option, but he took over the position and had over 300 carries as a rookie, and finished in the Top 5.
2012 Alfred Morris, Washington
Fantasy Points Scored (non-PPR): 241
Fantasy Point Rank at RB: #5
Average draft position for team: Roy Helu, RB39, Overall 101; Morris, RB48, Overall 136
The Washington running back situation was in flux, and not highly thought of entering the 2012 season. Morris, a late pick, was impressing in camp and began to shoot up draft boards, and went on to a top 5 finish.
2016 DeMarco Murray, Tennessee
Fantasy Points Scored (non-PPR): 240
Fantasy Point Rank at RB: #5
Average draft position for team: Murray, RB16, Overall 37; Derrick Henry, RB48, Overall 136
Murray had flopped in Philadelphia and signed in Tennessee. The Titans also drafted Heisman winner Derrick Henry in the second round, and Henry was expected to get some work and diminish Murray’s value. Murray went around the end of the 3rd round and early 4th on average, but stayed healthy all year and put up a big season in Tennessee.
2013, Knowshon Moreno, Denver
Fantasy Points Scored (non-PPR): 236
Fantasy Point Rank at RB: #5
Average draft position for team: Montee Ball, RB28, Overall 53; Moreno, RB40, Overall 102
Willis McGahee had led the team the year before, and Moreno had been on a steady decline (his best previous year was his rookie season in 2009). Denver drafted Montee Ball in the 2nd round and he was expected to become the primary starter. Instead, it was Moreno who had his career year in Denver’s high-powered offense.
2010 Peyton Hillis, Cleveland
Fantasy Points Scored (non-PPR): 235
Fantasy Point Rank at RB: #4
Average draft position for team: Jerome Harrison, RB31, Overall 77; Mike Bell, RB54, Overall 172
Peyton Hillis is the most outlier season of all-time. The Browns running back situation was not really settled anyway, but Jerome Harrison was expected to be the starter after finishing the previous year in strong fashion. He was gone within a month. Hillis, a former fullback, became a sensation and got on the cover of Madden.
2007 Adrian Peterson, Minnesota
Fantasy Points Scored (non-PPR): 234
Fantasy Point Rank at RB: #4
Average draft position for team: Adrian Peterson, RB23, Overall 43; Chester Taylor, RB35, Overall 85
It’s hard to think of a time when Adrian Peterson was being drafted outside the top 3 rounds (It will happen this year). But as a rookie, Peterson was not being drafted in the first couple of rounds because veteran Chester Taylor was going to get enough carries to allow him to come along slowly. Peterson came out and had over 100 yards in his first game, and put up a 200 yard game in week 5.
2009 Thomas Jones, NY Jets
Fantasy Points Scored (non-PPR): 228
Fantasy Point Rank at RB: #4
Average draft position for team: Jones, RB25, Overall 59; Shonn Greene, RB50, Overall 150
Thomas Jones had been the starter the year before, and had over 1,300 rushing yards at age 30, and finished as the 5th highest scoring RB in 2008. Nevertheless, he was only being drafted outside the top 4 rounds, and rookie Shonn Greene was expected to eat into his carries, while going to a rookie QB after a year with Brett Favre also reduced his perceived value. Jones matched his previous year numbers.
2016 LeGarrette Blount, New England
Fantasy Points Scored (non-PPR): 225 Fantasy Point Rank at RB: #7 Average draft position for team: Blount, RB34, Overall 85; James White RB46, Overall 120
The Patriots’ running backs had had great individual games, but under Bill Belichick, it was often maddening to predict them. The last time that a running back had 200+ fantasy points was Corey Dillon (2004), and it had been 4 seasons since a back had 160+ points (Stevan Ridley). So it was largely seen as a platoon situation.
Blount, though, took advantage of injuries and being the most trusted power back on a team that played with the lead all year, and finished with 18 rushing touchdowns.
OVERVIEW
When it comes to trying to find great value and get a boom situation after round 3, you need to look to the rookie running backs. However–it has been the presence of a rookie that has often provided great value for another veteran back.
Eight of the 12 situations that produced elite running back numbers involved a rookie running back being in the top two backs in the fantasy draft order for that team, and two of the others involved a new starter in the primary spot (Turner and Rice). We can write off the Peyton Hillis situation as a true outlier.
Of those eight situations where a rookie running back was present, the veteran (often being drafted after the rookie) actually proved to be the value play.
Devonta Freeman, DeAngelo Williams, Knowshon Moreno, DeMarco Murray, and Thomas Jones all put up great seasons in years where the team had drafted a rookie expected to compete in the first three rounds of the draft.
It makes sense–we have less info on rookies and more variability in their performance, so sometimes the rookie turns into a beast (Peterson, Forte) or outperforms a journeyman (Morris), and sometimes the rookie doesn’t pick things up as fast, isn’t as good, or gets hurt.
What situations might you consider snagging the veteran and/or the rookie to try to harness a boom this year? Here are some where the top back is going later than (or near) the end of the 3rd round on average, and both are going in the top 50 at the position.
Carolina: Rookie Christian McCaffrey (RB15) and Jonathan Stewart (RB42)
Minnesota: Rookie Dalvin Cook (RB16) and Latavius Murray (RB45)
Green Bay: Ty Montgomery (RB17) and Rookie Jamaal Williams (RB44)
Cincinnati: Rookie Joe Mixon (RB19) and Jeremy Hill (RB46)
Kansas City: Spencer Ware (RB20) and Rookie Kareem Hunt (RB37)
Washington: Rob Kelley (RB36) and Rookie Samaje Perine (RB41)
The San Francisco and Indianapolis situations also are close, with rookies Joe Williams and Marlon Mack just outside the top 50 entering week 2 of the preseason.