NFL Divisional Gambling Breakdown: Will Patriots ESPN Article Cause Them to Lose Saturday?

You didn’t think I actually meant the Pats would lose this weekend, did you? Listen, we all know the Pats are going to win, all I care about is if they are going to cover the spread!!! With the Divisional round of the NFL playoffs right around the corner, let’s breakdown the games in terms of the only thing we all care about…betting!

FALCONS -3 AT EAGLES – Over/ UNDER: 41

This is the first time a 6-seed has ever been favored over a 1-seed in the playoffs. Hey, it makes sense, Wentz is out and Foles has been underwhelming to say the least.  The Falcons are heating up at the right time, and the Eagles have been sputtering to the finish line.

JOES VS. PROS TAKE:

The Joes (public) are hammering the Falcons in every way possible, with over 60% of bets being placed on the Falcons.  They saw the Falcons beat a very good Rams team last week (recency bias), and with Foles starting, this looks like a no-brainer to them.  On the flip side, the Pros are split on this game. Some are taking the points with the home dog, and others took the Falcons right when this line opened at 2.5.

MY TAKE:

This is one game I am passing on.  I lean the Eagles, and every betting principle I have followed in the past is telling me to take them in this one. Historically, home dogs in Divisional playoff games have been money.  The weather is going to be terrible, and the Eagles defense is still dangerous.  And the biggest reason to fade the Falcons? Every single bettor I know, friends/ family/ Twitter/ forums, is on them.  I also don’t trust Sark calling the plays for this Falcons offense. I think the recent success they’ve had has been more Matt Ryan making plays than Sark’s play-calling. Usually all these reasons I listed would make me go the other way, but Foles is such a big question mark, that I just can’t get myself to put actual money on the Eagles in this one.

TITANS AT PATS -13.5 – OVER/ UNDER: 48

Is this line big enough? That is all I could think of when I first saw this line come out. This game reminds me a lot of last year’s Texans/ Pats game.  The Pats were favored by an all-time high & absurd, 16 points for a playoff game.  And guess what, the Pats still covered.

JOES VS. PROS TAKE:

The Joes love the PATS, and why wouldn’t they.  The Pats went 11-5 ATS this year, and like every year, if you took the Pats every week, you would be plus money. Over 70% of the ticket count is on the Pats.  Straight bets, moneyline, teasers, you name it, the Joes are on it. The public sees a well-oiled machine vs a Titans team that barely got into the playoffs.  That being said, the Pros are on the Titans in this one, as indicated by the reverse line movement. With all the Joes hammering the Pats, the line has actually gone down from 13.5 points to 13 in most books.  One thing we know for sure, the Hoody (Belichick) does not care about us, or our betting tickets. The Pats usually break every single betting system, principle, and rule there is.  Controversy or not, the Pats are a cover machine, and the ultimate F you team when it comes to betting, which is why the public always loves backing them.

MY TAKE:

Yes, I just said the Pats are a cover machine, and yes I am crazy, because I will be on the Titans plus the points in this one. I am hoping the public drives this number up to 14, so will be waiting to officially put it in.  Reverse line movement (RLM) is my favorite betting principle, and there is big RLM in this game.  I also think Derrick Henry is going to eat vs this weak Pats rush defense.  The weather is supposed to be terrible, so if the Titans can limit their turnovers, they should stay within the number in this one.

JAGUARS AT STEELERS -7 – OVER/ UNDER: 41

Earlier this week Steelers Safety Mike Mitchell said “We’re going to play them again. We can play them in hell, we can play them in Haiti, we can play them in New England…We’re gonna win.” Did Mitchell forget they have to play the Jags this week though? The same team that battered Big Ben so much earlier this year, that he was contemplating retirement.  Not the team to be looking ahead against, that’s for sure. Anyways, the Steelers are at home, and they have Bell and AB back, so they are feeling themselves.  Are the bettors though?

JOES VS. PROS TAKE:

Vegas has created the perfect line for this game, with the Joes and Pros perfectly split on both sides in this one.  You know what that means, Vegas wins either way off of the juice.  One small note, every time the number has gone above 7, the Pros have come in and bought up the Jags.

MY TAKE:

Give me the Jags plus the points in this one. Call me crazy, but I think the Jags have a chance to win this game straight up (live dog).  Jalen Ramsey is the best CB in football, and it is not even close. How good is he? Just watch this!

I know AB is back, but Ramsey is amazing. Listen, I love AB, but once the Toradol wears off in the second half, expect Ramsey to suffocate him.  And I know Blake Bortles looked like he was coming off of a bottle service night at the club last week, but look for him to bounce back. Why you ask? Because he compared himself to Lebron this week, that’s why! So put some respeck on his name!

Lol, let’s be serious though.  The biggest reason why I think Bortles will ball this week, is because he will be getting a lot of short fields.  With the Steelers defense being banged up, as long as he does not throw the ball backwards, the Jags should be in good position to score a lot of points this weekend.

SAINTS AT VIKINGS -5 – Over/ UNDER: 46.5

The Saints come into this game with one of the best offenses in the NFL, what else is new right?  Because of their dynamic rookie RB, Alvin Kamara, the Saints have had a completely new dimension to their offense this year. Kamara also helped me win my Fantasy Football league (keeper too), so I love him! The combination of Kamara and Ingram, has given Drew Brees the balanced offensive attack he’s always wanted.  The Vikings come into this game with one of the best defenses in the NFL, and more importantly, home field advantage.  In this classic offense vs. defense battle, the public only sees one thing…Drew Brees vs. Case Keenum.

JOES VS. PROS TAKE:

The Joes and Pros are completely on opposite sides in this game. The public is hammering the Saints.  Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, they can’t be stopped right? Case Keenum who? After what the Saints have done all year long, and how they performed last week, the Joes are very happy to be getting points in this one. On the flip side, the Pros are fading the trendy dog, big-time. The line opened at Vikings -4, and has quickly jumped to 5 in most books.

MY TAKE:

Give me the Vikings! Remember, RLM from above, we have that in this game.  Also remember to always fade the trendy dog.  A principle that has made me a lot of money these past couple of years, especially in the playoffs.  The Vikings defensive numbers this year are truly amazing, and record-breaking. They have the best 3rd down defense, the best defense against running backs (what the Saints exploit), they are top 5 vs the pass, top 5 vs the run, so top 5 overall, duh.  They are also the number 1 scoring defense in the NFL, and the numbers get even better at home, where their home field advantage has been amazing.  But, the biggest thing people forget is that the Vikings offense is pretty good. Ya that Case Keenum guy.  The Vikings finished the season as a top 10 scoring offense, and Keenum’s numbers have been great. He is not turning over the ball, and his Coaches have put him in a great situation to be successful this year. The Vikings defense will eat, and the Saints injuries will catch up to them in this one, wearing the Saints out by the second half of the game.

Thanks for reading, and let me know you guys are hitting. As I like to say with any of my bets, hope it hits foo! Definitely @ me on Twitter with what you are taking, before the games start of course, @docksquad33.