And we’re back for this week’s gambling preview. I nailed every game last week, but the Pats game of course. Like I said in last week’s post, Hoodie (Belichick) does not care about anyone’s betting principles or systems. All he and Brady care about is destroying teams on the field. Case in point…
Seth Wickersham’s Pats piece dropped just ten days ago, and if you think about it now, it is kind of old news. With the Pats advancing to their seventh straight AFC title game, it is business as usual for Hoodie and Brady.
Now before we talk about this week’s games, I quickly wanted to touch on why it is so important to shop around for the best lines. If you are wagering (just for fun of course), make sure you guys are doing so with multiple books. I bring that up because of what happened at the end of the Saints/ Vikings game last week. While normal fans were going crazy after the Diggs touchdown, gamblers were losing their minds on what happened next. The XP, or the XP that never happened, won/ lost a ton of people money. For the people holding Vikings -5.5 tickets, obviously they lost because the Vikings decided to not kick that XP. For the people holding Saints +5.5 tickets, they danced in joy when they saw the Vikings kneel. I was lucky enough to grab the Vikings -4 earlier in the week, but if I had a Vikings -5.5 ticket, I would’ve done what I always do when I get a bad beat. I would’ve sent 1000 messages on WhatsApp to my friends, and then cried on Twitter with some emojis. Luckily for me, Diggs scored that touchdown, I cashed in my ticket, and I saved my crying for another day. But getting back to my main point, I won because I found a favorable line, so make sure you are always shopping around for the best lines.
And while we’re talking about the best lines, let’s jump into the Pats game. There has been huge money coming in on the Jags in the last 12 hours, which has caused the line to go down big-time.
JAGS AT PATS -8.5 – OVER/ UNDER: 46
This line got all the way to 10 in a lot of books earlier this week because obviously, the Pats are the Pats, a cover machine that everyone bets on. Then, RapSheet tweeted this, and everything changed…
Panic set in everywhere for Pats fans and their bettors. Since then a lot of reports have come out like the following one by Mike Reiss basically saying Brady’s throwing hand is hurt, but he is going to be “ok”. We all know he is going to play, but definitely makes you wonder since it is his throwing hand.
About the game itself, we know it is going to come down to the Pats offense vs. the Jags defense. Some amazing stats below by Graham Barfield talk about just how good the Pats offense and Jags defense are. We all know this is going to be a heavyweight battle, so our biggest question is, can Rocky (Jags) make Drago (Pats) bleed?
JOES VS. PROS TAKE:
I said it last week and I’ve been saying it all year long…the Joes love the PATS. The Pats are getting over 60% of the money (Sports Insights). That being said, the Pros are on the Jags in this one, as indicated by the reverse line movement. With all the Joes hammering the Pats, the line has actually gone down from as high as 10, to 8.5 today. The Pros were already on the Jags at +10 and +9.5 earlier this week when the lines first started going up. Then in usual Pros/ Wiseguys/ Sharps fashion, they knew about the injury before all of us, hit this line even harder, and now have bet it down to 8.5/ 8 in some books even.
If you follow me on Twitter, or have read any of my posts, you know how much I love Jalen Ramsey and the Jags this year. In my write-up last week, I even said the Jags were a live dog and had a chance to win the game straight up. Well they did. Once again I will be on the opposite side of the Pats (usually does not end well), and will be taking the Jags in this one. The teams that usually give Brady and the Pats problems are the ones that have a strong front four, can pressure him, and drop multiple guys into coverage. I think the Jags will be able to play physically and at least hit Brady with just their front four. And I think Ramsey will put on a show as usual. Going back to my note above, always shop for the best lines. I have a Jags +10 ticket, but would take them at +9 as well. If you like the Jags, and missed out on a good number, shop around or wait for the line to go back up closer to game time. Another reason for my Jags bet, reverse line movement (RLM) is my favorite betting principle, and there is also big RLM in this game. This was the case even before Brady’s injury news came out. The Pats are the Pats, in F you mode, so if the Jags want to cover this game, they will need to be up at least a touchdown going into the fourth quarter.
Ramsey, please back up what you said Sunday!
VIKINGS -3 AT EAGLES – OVER/ UNDER: 39
The Eagles are a home dog again, and they have the dog masks (which I love btw) to prove it. And if you guys remember from last week’s post, I talked about how home dogs did very well in the Divisional rounds of the playoffs, and why the Eagles were the play. That being said, it changes a bit moving onto the Conference Championship round for home dogs, as you can see from RJ Bell’s tweet below:
JOES VS. PROS TAKE:
Vegas has put out the perfect line for this game at -3, because the betting tickets are split evenly in this one. Both teams are getting 50% of the tickets and betting dollars, which usually results in Vegas winning either way with the juice money. The line did open at Vikings -3.5, at which the Pros took the Eagles with the points because it was above a key number of 3.
Give me the Vikings -3 in this one. As I predicted last week, the Eagles were the right side. They are a great football team with a solid OL/ DL, and more importantly, they were in the perfect spot at home vs. an overvalued Falcons team. I’m a big fan of the Eagles and Carson Wentz, and it is a shame he can’t play in this game. If Wentz was healthy, this line definitely would be flipped. So why do I like the Vikings? I touched on it last week, and everyone knows this already, but the Vikings’ defensive numbers this year truly are record-breaking. And while I do think it will be a tough road game for them, I think this is the perfect spot to take them. People love home dogs, but as you saw from RJ Bell’s tweet above, in this round of the playoffs, home dogs don’t usually do well. I actually think we are getting value on the Vikings side, as Vegas power rankings and several other statistical sites and gurus I follow love the Vikings in this one. The Vikings defense is not the only reason for the love they are getting. Case Keenum has been playing incredible football, and I think he will be the better QB and the difference maker in this game. The Vikings defense should eat vs Foles, and I think Keenum does just enough to end the Eagles’ fairytale season.
Thanks for reading, and let me know what you guys are hitting. As I like to say with any of my bets, hope it hits foo! Definitely @ me on Twitter with what you are taking, before the games start of course, @docksquad33.