Bubble Breakdown: Penn State is Still Alive While Nebraska is In Trouble
By Jason Lisk
The number of slots that would seem to be claimed is increasing, and the actual bubble is going to shrink dramatically. I’ve got 31 teams as locks, where I am confident putting them in the field regardless of what else happens. Those teams are:
ACC (6): Virginia, Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech
Big 12 (4): Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia, TCU
SEC (6): Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, Texas A&M
Big East (4): Villanova, Xavier, Seton Hall, Creighton
Big Ten (4): Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan
Pac 12 (1): Arizona
American (3): Cincinnati, Wichita State, Houston
West Coast (1): Gonzaga
Mountain West (1): Nevada
Atlantic 10 (1): Rhode Island
That’s 10 conferences, and if the auto bids all come from that group, that would mean 21 of the 36 at-large spots accounted for (though bid thiefs are likely to shrink those auto bids and claim a few at-larges). So if we think we are looking at between 12 & 15 at-large spots remaining, here’s how I assess it.
ONE MORE WIN AND IN (7)
Oklahoma: They play the last place team, Iowa State, at home. Win that and they are 8-10 in conference, have 18 total wins, secure an RPI in the Top 50, and have 6 Quadrant 1 wins. But lose it? All bets are off heading into a game against the 9th place team and rival Oklahoma State in the conference tournament.
Missouri: Missouri might be in now after the win at Vanderbilt. There will be no doubt if they beat Arkansas on Saturday at home. Losing at home leaves the door slightly open, with Missouri likely needing to avoid a bad loss.
Florida State: The Seminoles play BC at home. A victory secures a Top 50 RPI and a 9-9 ACC record. It would put them in the 8/9 or 7/10 game in the ACC tournament, so no risk of a bad loss. If they lose it, though, the risk is there, and they probably have to play on the first day of the ACC Tournament.
Butler: Butler is another team that might be in anyway. If they can win at Seton Hall there is no question. They don’t want to get into a 7 vs 10 game in the Big East against DePaul or St. John’s that could be costly, so a Saturday win would be huge.
Middle Tennessee: If the Red Raiders avoid a bad home loss to Marshall to close the regular season, they will finish 17-1 in Conference USA and have an RPI in the Top 25. I think they are then just playing for seeding.
Arizona State: The Sun Devils have big wins over Kansas and Xavier, so they just don’t want to give the committee a reason to second guess them. A home loss to Stanford and a losing record in the Pac-12 might do that. But handle business and I think they are okay.
NC State: The game against Louisville is huge. A win and they are in for sure. A loss and they would have another toss-up game against a good opponent. They don’t want to go to Selection Sunday on a three-game losing streak.
PROBABLY OKAY WITH ANOTHER WIN (3)
Providence: The Friars probably lock it up with a win over St. John’s at home. They already have wins over Xavier and Villanova. A loss could pitch them into the 7-10 game depending on tiebreakers and then one more win might not be enough.
St. Bonaventure: The Bonnies are 22nd in the RPI and have some wins over some other bubble type teams that should keep them insulated. A win over St. Louis to close the regular season could be enough. Reaching the semis could be enough. They can’t lose both to St. Louis and then take a bad loss in the A-10 tourney.
USC: I’ve seen USC in the last four in by several listings, but they have an RPI inside the Top 35 and are gonna finish 2nd in the Pac-12. A win over UCLA might be enough and certainly reaching the Pac-12 semis should be.
NON-POWER CONFERENCE WILD CARDS (2)
St. Mary’s: The Gaels are highly rated in predictive systems. They are 27-4. But, they only have the two games against Gonzaga as Quadrant 1, going 1-1. The RPI is right on that non-power cutline, in the mid-30’s. If they lose before the final, they could be nervous. If they face Gonzaga again, I think they have to be in with 29 wins.
Loyola-Chicago: The Ramblers have a road win at Florida that could be the difference in getting a bid if they don’t win the MVC Tournament. They will be right on the cutline if they don’t claim the auto bid. Some teams like them have been put in Dayton, others sent to the NIT.
RIGHT ON THE BUBBLE (6)
These spots may shrink with auto bid thiefs knocking teams like Nevada, Middle Tennessee, or Rhode Island into the at-large pool. But these teams are very much in need of putting results.
Kansas State and Baylor: They play each other and it is huge. The winner’s chances are good, while the loser goes to Kansas City needing more results or leaving themselves at risk of someone just below passing them. Kansas State has an RPI outside the Top 60 and only 3 Quadrant 1 wins. Baylor has a slightly better RPI and 4 Quadrant 1 wins.
Louisville: how costly was that final second against Virginia? Now, they must go to NC State and get a big one. They have no wins against the RPI Top 25.
Texas: West Virginia is a must-win. Otherwise, they will slip to the wrong side of the bubble heading to the Big 12 tournament.
UCLA: Big wins against Kentucky and Arizona will have them in the conversation, but they need to beat USC. If they don’t they will go to the Pac-12 Tournament needing a quality win.
Washington: The Huskies have the win against Kansas and a winning record in conference, and the RPI is 45. But a loss to Oregon at home would be costly. On resumé right now they are barely in the field; the predictive rankings have them way down (outside the Top 90 in Ken Pom) and they are barely over a 50% chance at home against Oregon.
NEED RESULTS TO MOVE TO RIGHT SIDE OF THE BUBBLE (7)
Alabama: If they lose to Texas A&M, they will be 17-14, 8-10 in conference, and the RPI will fall outside the Top 60. They will also enter the SEC tournament on a five-game slide, and probably have to turn around and play Mississippi State or Texas A&M again. It’s not must-win against the Aggies, but it’s pretty close.
Temple: The RPI loves Temple, relatively, with a ranking of 43 despite a 16-13 record in the American Conference, because they played only one team non-conference outside the Top 200. They beat Clemson and Xavier in a three-day span in November, but have spent most of the time since December not looking like a tournament team. Those factors still give them a chance, but at Tulsa is now a must-win after losing at Connecticut mid-week. They may also need to get to the American semis with a quality win.
Marquette: With an RPI just outside the Top 60 and four Quadrant 1 wins, Marquette must beat Creighton at home. That might not quite be enough, and they face a tough task of maybe having to get through Villanova in a quarterfinal. Reaching the semis could shoot them past other bubble teams.
Mississippi State: The Bulldogs are outside the Top 60 and also have only a 2-7 record against Quadrant 1, with the best win being at Texas A&M. Regardless of whether they win at LSU, they need to get a big win in the SEC. They’ll likely be in the 7 to 10 seed range, which means they’ll get their shot against Auburn or Tennessee if they can reach the quarters.
Syracuse: Last year, Syracuse had lots of big wins but the RPI was too low to get in the tournament. We have the opposite case this year, as the RPI is within the acceptable range (49) for a bid, but they are only 2-7 against Quadrant 1 and 0-6 against the RPI Top 25. They get one more opportunity at home against Clemson, before the ACC Tourney. They must win it, or go to the ACC tourney needing a deep run.
Penn State: The Nittany Lions are still alive after going 3-0 against Ohio State. They still must face and beat Purdue. If they can do that, they have a chance right at the bubble. The RPI would get near or maybe inside 60 and they would have 4 top tier wins.
Utah: Utah’s deal, like Syracuse, is that they need big wins (2-6 against Quadrant 1) and the Pac-12 offers less of them. They may need to reach the final.
Notre Dame: Bonzie Colson is back. If they can get the big upset at Virginia, I think they jump right back in the discussion and might get the benefit of the doubt if the resume is close, since they look like a tournament team when both Colson and Farrell are on the court.
PROBABLY IN TROUBLE/ NEED AUTO BID
Nebraska: The Huskers should probably get in after going to 13-5 in the Big Ten and having to play all the top teams on the road. But they only had one Quadrant 1 win (vs Michigan) and failed to add another in the tournament. The Committee does not take that as an at-large.
Western Kentucky: They failed to win at Middle Tennessee and now need to beat them in the final.
Oregon: There’s a path, but it requires winning at Washington and then getting a couple of more quality wins in the Pac-12.
Everyone else