Baseball bettors are looking to put in their futures tickets with the MLB regular season starting tomorrow. Winning it all requires a lot of skill and loads of luck, so instead of betting on that I will focus on where we can find some value, the MLB season win totals.
The oddsmakers are expecting a bunch of really good teams and even more bad teams this season, with nine teams having a season win total of 90+, while ten teams are being listed at 75 or fewer.
Here are all the win totals posted for the season, and below are my best team and player total bets for the 2018 baseball season:
- Arizona Diamondbacks under 85.5 wins: The loss of J.D. Martinez, the installation of the new humidor, and some regression from their pitching staff is going to hurt the DBacks this year. They had a huge jump in win totals last year, so look for that to come down this year.
- Boston Red Sox over 91.5 wins: Speaking of J.D. Martinez…the Red Sox won 93 games last season without him. Adding him to the middle of that lineup makes them even more nasty, and look for David Price to have a bounce back season. With the Bronx Bombers getting all the attention, people are undervaluing the Red Sox.
- New York Yankees under 94.5: Now let’s talk about the Bronx Bombers…yes their lineup is nasty with the addition of Giancarlo Stanton, but Vegas has intentionally set the win total higher here because of all the public love. Aaron Judgeis a monster, but his numbers should dip a little…Sophomore slump anyone? The Yankees will be fun and exciting to watch, but we are getting good value here with that total.
- Cleveland Indians over 94.5 wins: I’ll keep it short and sweet. The Indians are stacked, but more importantly, they play in the worst division in baseball. They should be able to rack up a ton of wins during the dog days of summer which should push them over their number.
- Chicago Cubs over 94.5 wins: Call me a homer if you want, but the Cubs won 92 games last season even with a World Series hangover. This year’s team is much more well-rounded than last year’s, especially in the pitching department. Adding Yu Darvish to their rotation will be a big boost to this already stacked team. They are by far the best team in the division, and if they can stay healthy, look for them to win around 100 games.
- Chicago White Sox over 68 wins: I hate the Chicago White Sox…just have since I was a kid…rivals you know? That being said, I absolutely love what Rick Hahn is doing on the South Side. Their rebuild is looking a lot like what the Cubs did when Theo got here, and to me, they are a little bit ahead of schedule. Look for Eloy Jiménez and some of their younger guys to make a sooner-than-expected impact. With other teams in the division in rebuild mode, they should rack up some wins against those bad teams to push them over.
A couple of player props I love:
- Paul Goldschmidt under 31.5 home runs: One word, humidor…good read about it here.
- Greg Bird under 22.5 home runs: With Bird injured, there is some really good value in this bet. No one knows when he will be back, and just yesterday Buster Olney reported that he might miss the first two months of the season. This other tweet by Olney was even more alarming:
- Kyle Schwarber over 30.5 home runs: Schwarber struggled at times last season, even being sent down to the minors, and he still hit 30 home runs. After working out all off-season and losing all of his baby fat, he looks like a new man. As long as he stays healthy, 31 bombs should be easily attainable for him.