2018 NFL Win Totals: Over/ Unders for All Teams, 5 Best Bets, & Why the Steelers will go Under

Over the weekend, the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook released its win totals for all 32 teams. The New England Patriots are favored to win the most regular season games, and the Cleveland Browns and Arizona Cardinals come in with the lowest totals.

Here is a look at all 32 teams:

Patriots – 11
Eagles – 10.5
Steelers – 10.5
Packers – 10
Vikings – 10
Saints – 9.5
Rams – 9.5
Falcons – 9
Panthers – 9
Jaguars – 9
Chargers – 9
49ers ​– 9
Cowboys – 8.5
Texans – 8.5
Chiefs – 8.5
Ravens – 8
Lions – 8
Raiders – 8
Seahawks – 8
Titans – 8
Bengals – 7
Broncos – 7
Redskins – 7
Bills – 6.5
Colts – 6.5
Bears – 6.5
Giants – 6.5
Buccaneers – 6.5
Dolphins – 6
Jets – 6
Cardinals – 5.5
Browns – 5.5

Now that most of the big free agents have changed teams and the NFL Draft is over, we have a pretty good idea of what rosters are going to look like. After taking into account rosters, SOS, point differential, injuries, new QBs and coaches, I came up with a list of my five best over/ under bets for the upcoming NFL season:

New York Giants over 6.5 wins

Look for Saquon Barkley to have an Ezekiel Elliott type effect on this Giants team. In Elliott’s rookie season, he took a 9 loss Cowboys team and made them a 9 win team. Yes, a ton of other factors went into their success, but NFL Research did some digging and found that of all positions drafted in the first round since 2000, rookie running backs have the second-highest “effect” on win totals the following season. Plus, of all positions drafted in the top five, RBs have the largest “effect” on win totals:

Pat Shurmer, beloved in Minnesota, should come in and provide a calming presence after last year’s nightmare season.  Odell Beckham Jr. and Barkley will give Eli Manning two of the most dangerous weapons in the league, so if he can have a bounce back season (signing Nate Solder should help), they should be able to win 7+ games next year.

Chicago Bears over 6.5 wins

Yes, I am drinking the Kool-Aid, but I think the Bears will be a lot better this season. They had one of the best off-seasons if you look at the coaching staff they put together, their free agent acquisitions, and their draft. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky enters his second season surrounded by improved playmakers in Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and Trey Burton. They also have a great two-headed monster at running back in Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. The defense that was top 10 in total yards and points now brings its entire secondary back, and has added Roquan Smith to run the show. Even with a terrible coaching staff and a ton of injuries, they still won 5 games. If they can get a little lucky and stay healthy, that alone should add to their win total. My colleague Jason Lisk also wrote about the difference a new QB/ Coach combo can make, which also has me feeling good about the upcoming season. While I do think they are a year away from real contention, coach Matt Nagy should help us cash this futures ticket.

Detroit Lions under 8 wins

With the Bears, Packers, and Vikings all getting better, someone in the division is going to take a step back. They face the second hardest SOS: a second-place schedule in the NFC, which means games against the Cowboys, Panthers, and Seahawks, and now that road game in San Francisco is looking a lot tougher than it did last year (Jimmy G). Matthew Stafford has been terrific, but this Lions team still has plenty of question marks on the offensive line, at running back, and in their pass rush. I see some regression on the way, and have them winning 7 games.

Pittsburgh Steelers under 10.5

While I think the Steelers will still win their division, there are some issues to point out. With the departure of Todd Haley, there will be a transition period with new OC Randy Fitchner. And as amazing as LeVeon Bell is, if he misses camp, it is going take some time for them to get on the same page. Ben Roethlisberger is also a year older, and took some big-time beatings last year. And, the Steelers defense as a whole is their biggest question mark. How they do on the road against Jacksonville and New Orleans will most likely determine this ticket. I see a slight decline coming with an inflated line, so I’ll take the under.

Kansas City Chiefs over 8.5

The Chiefs have finished 9-7 or better in each of Andy Reid’s five seasons as head coach. They also have all of their big weapons coming back in Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt, and Tyreek Hill, and have added Sammy Watkins to the mix. Even though Patrick Mahomes is taking over at the helm, he had a year to learn the offense, and even got a rep in at the end of the season. They also have a relatively easy SOS, which should help. And although this article is more geared towards fantasy, it shows us the past success of QBs that took over in similar situations to Mahomes. The Chiefs pretty much went all defense in the draft to plug some of the defensive holes left by departures. And, don’t forget, the heart and soul of their defense in Eric Berry should be back. I see them contending for the division and surpassing that total.

It’s time to make some money!