2018 Kentucky Derby Primer: Odds, the Favorite, Darkhorses, and a Winning Ticket

Every year sports fans shift their attention to Louisville on the first Saturday in May for the Kentucky Derby. Whether you are a horse expert or betting for fun, there is plenty of action to go around while you sip on a mint julep.

Before we jump into it all, let’s start with the horses, their positions, and their odds to win it all:

Tidbits you should know:

Starting at Post 5 helps: Post No. 5 is the place to be, with 10 champions starting out of that gate. Five winners in the last 21 years have come from that post, including 2017 champion Always Dreaming. Audible gets that post on Saturday.

Curse of the Apollo: No horse has won the Derby without racing at 2 years old since Apollo in 1882. Justify and Magnum Moon are the only two in this field that fit.

The Favorite: Justify +300

Justify is the favorite and the horse with the most hype heading into the Derby after winning the Santa Anita Derby. He is a very talented colt that is owned by Bob Baffert. Love him or hate him, Baffert’s horses are always in the mix to win the Derby. Justify will try to break the 135-year-old curse mentioned above.

Darkhorses I like:

My Boy Jack +3000

Very experienced horse with 10 races under his belt. Finished third-place in the Louisiana Derby, won the Lexington Stakes, and has a Hall-of-Fame Jockey in Kent Desormeaux.

Hofburg +2000

Bill Mott is a legendary trainer, and Hofburg finished 2nd to Audible in the Florida Derby. Horses that do well there generally do well in the Derby. I will have some kind of Hofburg ticket going into the race.

Good Magic +1200

Ran well at the Blue Grass Stakes a month ago, Breeders Cup Juvenile winner and has Chad Brown as his trainer.  Good value on a horse that has a won a big race at the age of 2, and has a trainer that has won before (Cloud Computing – 2017 Preakness).  Mix Good Magic into your bets.

My Pick: Audible +800

While I will have Justify mixed into my bets, I will not be on him big for a couple of reasons. First, the Curse of the Apollo is real, as horses need to get that experience in at a younger age.  Second, Justify has ran in races with 9 horses, so this will be a very different experience for him.  Every little thing counts when breaking down these races.

The Derby is always a crapshoot and the hardest race of the Triple Crown to bet on, but at 8-1, I like Audible’s pedigree, experience, and post (look above) coming into this race.  His Florida Derby victory was eye-catching, as he put on a show there, and he has last year’s Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher getting him ready.  Want an intellectual reason to back him?  The audiobook company, Audible, is backing its namesake. I love the service so why not put something down on him!  Let’s go!