World Cup Group Tiebreaker and Scenario Breakdowns: Mexico Needs a Result, Argentina and Colombia Still Have Hope
By Jason Lisk
The 2018 World Cup is down to the final round of group games. The teams that are still alive to advance have a better sense of what they need to do to get to the knockout rounds. All pairs of group games will be played simultaneously so that teams within a group cannot have a tactical advantage of knowing specific needs before kickoff (a legacy of an infamous Germany-Austria group game in 1982).
The top two teams advance from each group, with 1st place finishers from one group facing the 2nd place team from their partner groups (A/B, C/D, E/F, G/H). The group tiebreakers, if two or more teams are tied on total points, starts with goal differential, and then goals scored. If that doesn’t break the tie, then it goes to just the matches involving teams in the tiebreaker, again using points, then goal differential, then goals scored. And if still tied, it goes to “Fair Play”–a points system based on team accumulation of yellow and red cards where more is bad, and then a drawing of lots if that still doesn’t conclude the tie.
Let’s break down what each team needs to advance:
Jump to Group C & D scenarios
Jump to Group E & F scenarios
Jump to Group G & H scenarios
GROUP A (Games at 10 a.m. ET, Monday June 25)
Russia and Uruguay (both with 6 points) are both advancing and Egypt and Saudi Arabia are eliminated. Russia will have the tiebreaker based on goal difference if there is a draw in the final match with Uruguay, so Russia finishes 1st with a draw or a win, while Uruguay needs to win to finish 1st.
GROUP B (Games at 2 p.m. ET, Monday June 25)
Spain and Portugal both have 4 points, while Iran has 3 points from the win against Morocco, and Morocco is eliminated.
Portugal advances with a draw against Iran, while Spain also advances with a draw (since one of Portugal or Iran will be below 5 points). Iran advances with a win over Portugal. They can also advance with a draw and a Spain loss to Morocco, but because of goals scored, they would either need to have a high-scoring draw (at least 3 goals) or Spain would have to lose by more than one goal.
If Spain and Portugal finish level on points (at either 4 with a loss by each, 5 with draws, or 7 points with both winning), then it comes down to a tiebreaker. They are currently even on both goal differential and goals. If that remains, it could be decided by “fair play.” Entering the final game, Spain has only one yellow card while Portugal has two.
GROUP C (Games at 10 a.m. ET, Tuesday June 26)
France has clinched advancement, though they could still finish 2nd. France wins the group with a win or draw against Denmark. Denmark would win the group and France would finish 2nd if Denmark wins the match.
Peru is eliminated. Australia can advance in 2nd place with a win over Peru, combined with France beating Denmark. In that case, it would go to a tiebreaker at 4 points each. Australia is at 2 goals for and 3 against, while Denmark is at 2 goals for and 1 against, so it would come down to goal differential, then goals scored, then (since they drew head-to-head), fair play standings. Denmark has 4 yellow cards and Australia 3 entering the last matches.
GROUP D (Games at 2 p.m. ET, Tuesday June 26)
Croatia has clinched advancement, and while they have not formally clinched 1st place, they have a big tiebreaker edge over Nigeria, the only team that could catch them, since they won head-to-head 2-0, and are +5 in goal difference versus Nigeria at 0.
Nigeria advances with a win over Argentina. They also advance with a draw, combined with Iceland losing/drawing against Croatia, or only winning by one goal. If Iceland won by two goals, it would go to tiebreakers, and could be decided by goals for. If Iceland cannot surpass Nigeria in goals scored or goal difference, Nigeria advances based on the head-to-head win.
Argentina advances with a win, combined with an Iceland loss or draw to Croatia. Argentina can also advance with a win and an Iceland win over Croatia, but would have to win the tiebreaker. Right now, Argentina is at 1 goal for, 4 against, versus 1 goal for and 3 against for Iceland, so Argentina would have to make up one goal.
Iceland need to win, and have either a draw between Nigeria and Argentina–and win the tiebreaker by making up at least two goals against Nigeria, or have Argentina win by only one goal (or the same number of goals or less than Iceland).
If Argentina and Iceland finished tied on 4 points and tied on the goal differential and goals scored, then Iceland has a decided fair play advantage, with 0 yellow cards versus 3 for Argentina.
GROUP E (Games at 10 a.m. ET, Wednesday June 27)
No one has clinched advancement but Costa Rica is eliminated.
Brazil and Switzerland are currently tied at 4 points, while Serbia have 3 points. Brazil has the goal differential edge (3-1 versus 3-2) heading to the last matches.
Brazil advances with a win or draw versus Serbia. They win the group with a win, and either a Switzerland draw/loss to Costa Rica, or by winning the tiebreaker at 7 points. Brazil also wins the group with a draw and a Switzerland loss or draw. Brazil can also advance with a loss, but only if Switzerland also loses and they win the tiebreaker. (If it were to come down to it, Brazil has a slight edge over Switzerland at 3 yellow cards versus 4).
Switzerland advances with a win or draw versus Costa Rica. They can win the group by winning and having Brazil draw/lose or by making up the goal differential. Switzerland can also advance with a loss combined with a Brazil loss, and winning the tiebreaker.
Serbia advances with a win. They also can advance with a draw and a Switzerland loss, though they would have to make up a tiebreaker disadvantage. Serbia would either need a Swiss loss by two or more goals, or to have a high-scoring draw that moves them ahead in goals scored.
GROUP F (Games at 2 p.m. ET, Wednesday June 27)
No one has clinched advancement, and no one is formally eliminated, even South Korea with 0 points through two games.
This is probably the craziest group with scenarios.
Mexico wins the group with a win or draw versus Sweden. They cannot, however, win the group with a loss (because they would lose a tiebreaker to Sweden on either goal difference, goals scored, or head-to-head). They could be eliminated with a loss and a German win, depending on tiebreakers if Mexico, Germany, and Sweden are all at 6 points.
Sweden and Germany could both advance by getting to six points. Here are the scenarios for a three-way tie at six points:
If Germany wins by multiple goals, they are advancing on goal differential. They will win the group as long as they win by the same (or more) number of goals scored and goal differential as Sweden.
If Sweden wins by more than one goal, they are advancing, and Germany is also advancing, and first/second will depend on goal differential and goals scored (if that is tied, Germany wins the head-to-head tiebreaker).
If both games are decided by 1-0 scorelines, then it would go to the three-team tiebreaker as all three would have identical goals for and against. Germany and Sweden would advance based on head-to-head goals for over Mexico, and Germany would win the group based on beating Sweden.
If both games are decided by identical 2-1 scorelines (or identical one-goal scorelines with more goals), then Sweden would win the group (based on head-to-head goals in the games between the three) and Mexico would finish 2nd. The same result would be true if the Sweden/Mexico goals were greater than Germany/South Korea and both were decided by one goal.
If the Germany/South Korea game has more goals and both matches are decided by one goal, Germany would win the group and Sweden would finish 2nd.
Got it?
Oh, and Germany and Sweden could come down to a tiebreaker at four points with draws in both games. Germany advances in 2nd in that scenario, and Mexico wins the group.
South Korea only advances if they beat Germany AND Mexico beats Sweden. South Korea would also need to either beat Germany by two goals, or have Sweden lose by two or more goals. If there is a three-way tie at three points, then Germany is advancing as long as both games are decided by one goal.
GROUP G (Games at 2 p.m. ET, Thursday June 28)
Group G is the simplest in terms of scenarios. Tunisia and Panama are eliminated. Belgium and England are advancing, and have identical goals for (8) and goals against (2).
That means the winner of their match wins the group. If there is a draw, then it would come down to the fair play standings. Right now, Belgium has 3 yellows and England has 2 yellows, so England would advance in first place with a draw if the net yellow card accumulation stays the same.
GROUP H (Games at 10 a.m. ET, Thursday June 28)
Japan and Senegal both have 4 points and Colombia is back in it after a big three-goal win over Poland, who are eliminated.
Japan and Senegal both advance with either a win or draw. They are tied on goals scored and allowed at 4-3.
Colombia advances with a win over Senegal. They also advance with a draw against Senegal, if Japan loses to Poland, based on goal differential if both teams are tied at 4 points. Colombia wins the group with a win, combined with a loss or draw by Japan.
If Senegal and Japan both lose, Colombia would win the group with 6 points, and 2nd place would come down to a tiebreaker, that would be determined by the goal differential or goals scored in the final match. If that is still tied, fair play would decide it. That is currently favoring Japan, 3 yellow cards versus 5.
[all images via USA Today Sports Images]