10 Players With Major Bust Potential for 2018 Fantasy Football
By Henry McKenna
Here are 10 NFL players who have major bust potential for the 2018 fantasy football seasons. They seem bound to underperform, based on their average draft position in standard leagues (on fantasypros.com).
1. Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans
Revisiting his stats (and film) from 2017 will have fantasy owners gawking at Watson’s playmaking abilities. He threw for 319.7 yards per start with 3.6 passing touchdowns. He also averaged 50.6 rushing yards per start with 0.2 rushing touchdowns. Those numbers are jarring, which is why he’s going to shoot to the top of draft boards. For now, he’s QB5 and 62nd overall (just one position behind Cam Newton, who is QB4 at 61st overall).
Watson’s upside is tremendous. But his mobility led to a torn ACL. That’s an occupational hazard for a mobile quarterback like Watson, whose elusiveness was staggering. He’s not getting drafted like a quarterback who is going to throw 57 touchdowns (which he would have done if he’d managed his average over a 16-game season). But he is getting drafted ahead of Drew Brees, a player who has eclipsed 4,000 passing yards for the last 12 seasons and has eclipsed 5,000 for five of the last 10 seasons. And people are betting on Watson after seeing him for just five games. They’re also betting on him amid a recovery from a major injury.
Watson is a star — but he’s a much bigger risk than people seem to think. If you take him high, be sure to secure a late quarterback like Phillip Rivers or Matt Ryan (both of whom are going roughly 60 picks later, if you’re looking for better value).
2. Jared Goff, QB, Rams
Another young quarterback getting too much hype.
I know Goff has one of the best arsenals in the NFL. I know he showed incredible development in his second year under Sean McVay. But check out his stats. Goff had 3,804 passing yards, 28 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He also doesn’t run the ball.
Goff has developed to be a good quarterback, but has not developed to be a good fantasy quarterback. The distinction is important. So while the NFL hype machine gets folks on the Rams’ bandwagon (and that’s what the league wants because they’re trying to sell their brand in Los Angeles), Goff’s fantasy value is still modest. Let him continue to be QB16, which is probably an overestimation of his value.
3. Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings
ACL injuries are unforgiving — just ask Keenan Allen’s fantasy owners. Allen surged in the second half of the season but was wildly underwhelming from Week 1 to Week 10. He didn’t pop until Week 11 when he went off for over 40 points in in standard leagues.
For those interested in drafting Cook, who looked as promising as any rookie running back in 2017, an ACL injury should serve as a significant deterrent. It’s not that I don’t think Cook is talented. It’s not that I don’t think his offense will be high octane. But Cook is, on average, the 10th running back drafted at 15th overall. This year more than ever, owners seem to be gorging on running backs in early picks. Why not take a player who is already past his ACL injury: Keenan Allen (who is going 17th overall)? Why not take A.J. Green or Michael Thomas?
The first and second rounds are spots where owners can’t afford to miss. If Cook’s injury slows him and Latavius Murray poaches carries and touchdowns, then owners might sorely regret taking Cook with their second pick.
4. Jerick McKinnon, RB, 49ers
McKinnon has always been a good athlete but hasn’t really been a good running back. After Cook averaged 4.8 yards per carry in the first four games behind the Vikings offensive line, McKinnon averaged 3.8 yards per carry.
Meanwhile, Matt Breida may not be making $30 million over four years, but he averaged 4.4 yards per carry last season — he’s not a slouch. McKinnon may have PPR value throughout the season, but he could see his rushing workload diminish if he’s not running well. And there’s not a ton of space for optimism after he averaged 3.6 yards per carry his last 309 rushes over the last two seasons.
Volume is good. However, he’s got to make something out of that volume. McKinnon’s past inability to do so should scare fantasy owners out of taking him as RB12 at 21st overall ahead of Jordan Howard (1,226 rushing yards, 12 rushing touchdowns in 2017).
5. Rashaad Penny, RB, Seahawks
In the NFL, the adage is that running backs are replaceable. The Seahawks could not find a way to make that adage true last season. After losing Chris Carson, they struggled enormously to rush the football. It wasn’t all the fault of the running backs. In fact, the fault fell mostly on the offensive line. This is a round-about way of saying that Penny, like the Seahawks running backs who failed last year, is going to have to figure out how to succeed behind bad blocking. The problem is that Carson already figured it out.
Penny could be a major success. He could also fail to take off, which would allow Carson to retake his role. That lack of certainty is why Penny is a scary prospect at 45th overall, where Juju Smith-Schuster, Golden Tate and even fellow rookie Royce Freeman are better options.
6. Sony Michel, RB, Patriots
I just hyped Rex Burkhead, so I can’t use the cliché that one should avoid New England running backs. In fact, that cliché occasionally brings value to running backs (Dion Lewis was a free agent in most leagues until midseason). However, Michel presents a number of major risks.
For one, he’s a rookie. They get nothing guaranteed on the Patriots. To make things worse, he’s got a history of fumbling (12 fumbles, five lost in college). Bill Belichick benches fumblers. And finally, there’s a presumption in New England and nationally that Michel can immediately make an impact in the passing game, largely because he’s a strong pass protector. (As a Patriots beat writer, I’ll admit I’ve been guilty of this.) But of course, good pass blocking doesn’t net fantasy points. Last season in college, Michel had just nine receptions. He showed in his sophomore year he could be a pass-catcher with 26 catches. But assuming he can translate that to the pro level is unfair.
And finally, the Patriots relied heavily on Burkhead in the red zone. Even if Michel is getting 15 touches per game, he’ll be unplayable if Burkhead vultures every touchdown.
Michel will creep up draft boards. He’s ranked 58th overall for now. Even that is probably a bit rich for a rookie who shares a backfield with Burkhead, James White and potentially Jeremy Hill, if he makes the team.
7. Jimmy Graham, TE, Packers
A tight end to the Packers offense? Book it. An under-performer. Martellus Bennett, Lance Kendricks and Jared Cook couldn’t get it done. Graham is on another level, some might say. Maybe. But there are more reasons to doubt Graham’s potential for scoring in 2018.
He lived and died on touchdowns with 10 in 2017. Wilson threw 29 percent of his touchdowns to Graham. With Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, Geronimo Alison and Marcedes Lewis, Graham may not get the same degree of attention in the red zone. Wilson, who had an ailing offensive line, was downright dependent on Graham. Rodgers probably won’t be.
Graham also had just 520 yards, the least he’s had since his rookie year in 2012. Why the sudden regression?
Graham is going 66th overall, but you’d be wise to grab someone else at a skill position and wait to lock down a tight end until later in the draft.
8. Josh Gordon, WR, Browns
What’s more likely: Gordon plays 16 games or Gordon plays none? The fact that that is even a question should be problematic for those interested in drafting Gordon.
On one hand, he could be WR5 at the end of the season. On the other hand, he could be WR89812341234019234. An exaggeration, but you get it.
Gordon will also be catching passes from a mix of Baker Mayfield and Tyrod Taylor. Mayfield may be the second coming of Russell Wilson — he may also be the second coming of Johnny Manziel. The Browns don’t have a great track record of identifying quarterbacks. Last season, Taylor got benched for Nathan Peterman, the guy who threw five interceptions in the first quarter of his first start.
Gordon currently getting drafted 46th-overall as WR20. He’s a Pro Bowl talent with a propensity for suspensions and likely a rookie quarterback to boot. Tread with caution.
9. Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots
Remember Rob Ninkovich? Probably not. Ninkovich was a shockingly clutch and productive player for the Patriots — he did everything right in New England. A pro’s pro. Then Nink got popped for PEDs. When he returned from his suspension, he was a non-factor. He then retired the following offseason.
Add in an ACL injury and parts of that story parallel Edelman’s. The Patriots star slot receiver is 31, he’s overcoming a major injury and if he was juicing, he’s not anymore. He also won’t play for the first four games of the season. That’s a handful of problems for a player who is going 98th overall. He should be the player you begrudgingly take because he’s fallen too far. Don’t go out and get him.
10. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Broncos
The Broncos sent a clear message to their receivers when they drafted two rookies in the first four rounds of the 2018 NFL Draft. Sanders is on watch. I don’t want to overplay recency bias, but Sanders is also fresh off a season with just 555 yards and two touchdowns. That said, Sanders has Case Keenum at quarterback — not a messy hodgepodge of failed NFL passers. This isn’t to say Sanders is heading into another awful season. However, there’s enough to worry about when players like Chris Hogan, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and Jamison Crowder will be available in Sanders’ draft position.
Sanders is a good receiver, but he’s also a 31-year-old on a roster with Cortland Sutton and DaeSean Hamilton nipping at his heels. He’s a scary selection.