Here are the Big Lead’s Fantasy Football QB Rankings. I’m going to go down and explain how I have the players tiered, but if you’d rather skip ahead to a an explanation of how I put these rankings together, and a printable and viewable list of projections you can go here. The rankings are based on a point system of 6 points for every TD (-3 for interceptions), 1 point for 10 rushing yards, and 1 point for 20 passing yards.
Yes, Aaron Rodgers was hurt last year and so it may feel risky to put him in his own tier. But given his age, his historical production, and the fact he still contributes on the ground with some rushing value, he is the all-around choice.
Over the last four years, Aaron Rodgers has thrown 125 passes in 55 games, a rate of over 2 per game. He’s also added 7 rushing touchdowns and averaged about 20 rushing yards a game in that span. He hasn’t thrown double-digit interceptions in a season since 2010. If you are in leagues where passing touchdowns are worth less, then his value goes down and the gap closes. But he’s the favorite to lead the league in passing touchdowns again and should throw a lot of passes in 2018. The loss of Jordy Nelson is offset by adding Jimmy Graham as a red zone target.
There are question marks in this tier for sure, but it’s all about upside. You’ve got guys who are in this tier because of the sheer rushing value to go with being good passers, in Wilson and Watson. Yes, Watson is a risk, and has perhaps the highest bust potential because of coming back from the knee injury. He also has the highest upside if he can approach last year’s blistering start. Wilson is coming off a season when he lead the NFL with 34 touchdown passes and had no ground game. I expect that to stabilize some in 2018 but he should still be a focal point, and will add you an extra 400 yards on the ground.
Tom Brady’s question mark is simply how long he can go on at a high level. He doesn’t provide the rushing value of others so he needs to keep racking up 280 passing yards a game and average 2 touchdowns to justify this ranking. Andrew Luck is coming back from the shoulder injury that cost him all of 2017. Yes, he hasn’t played in a while, but finally all signs are positive and he should be good to start the year, and so it’s hard to ignore that he has thrown for nearly two touchdowns a game for his career and should be the centerpiece of the offense.
Then there’s Matthew Stafford. He fits the mold of some recent next-level breakouts like Matt Ryan winning MVP two years ago. He’s turning 30 and in his prime. He’s finished 7th in fantasy points the last two years, and hasn’t had any help from the running game. He set a career high in yards per attempt last season, and is my projected leader in total passing yards.