Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings and Tiers
By Jason Lisk
The Running Back position can make or break your fantasy team. Taking the wrong one in the early rounds can leave you in a hole. Here are my 2018 rankings based on my team projections and assessing usage. These projections are based on the player’s history and usage with the team (if applicable), historical trends for the team and players of draft position and age (for younger players especially) and the projected depth chart for teams.
If you want to skip ahead to a list–with individual stats projections–you can go to the final page. (These rankings will be updated as injuries and more information emerges.) Otherwise, here are my tiers and a breakdown of the position.
TIER 1
Gurley was the #1 overall back last year in Sean McVay’s offense, is in his prime, is a playmaker in both the running game and passing game, and should be the first pick in most drafts. Bell hasn’t reported to camp and if that concerns you, it’s not unreasonable to bump him down a tier. For now, we’ll assume he will be in the lineup in week 1.
TIER 2
Ezekiel Elliott
David Johnson
Saquon Barkley
Alvin Kamara (in PPR)
Ezekiel Elliott will be the offense for Dallas this year. The suspension is behind him, and he’s averaged 104.6 rushing yards per game for his career. The only thing that keeps him from being the #1 overall pick is his relatively lower usage in the passing game compared to other top backs. In non-PPR leagues, he’s right there.
David Johnson is coming back from injury that cost him all of last year. The good news is that it was not a leg injury. He returns and will be the focal point of an offense that no longer has Carson Palmer. Expect big numbers if healthy as he wants a new contract.
Saquon Barkley projects as a workhorse, and we’ve seen recent cases of highly drafted rookies making an impact. I expect him to challenge for the total yards title. Alvin Kamara, meanwhile, is due for a bump because of the Mark Ingram suspension. The only concern is that he’s never handled a high workload before, but he was so explosive as a rookie that can put together a Chris Johnson-like sophomore campaign.
TIER 3
Leonard Fournette
Kareem Hunt
Dalvin Cook
Devonta Freeman
LeSean McCoy
Leonard Fournette would be in Tier 2 but for more receptions. He is likely to be among the league leaders in rushing touchdowns and should move even more into a workhorse role in Year 2 for a team that will rely on defense and ball control.
Kareem Hunt has some downside risk in that the backfield depth is better this year (Damien Williams should supplant Charcandrick West, and Spencer Ware returns) but he’s part of an explosive offense. Dalvin Cook has questions coming back from the knee injury but looked like a feature back as a rookie. Devonta Freeman continues to rack up rushing touchdowns, and will look to rebound from a slightly down 2017 where he missed two games. He’s still only 26.
LeSean McCoy turned 30, an age when some backs start to decline. He’s also not in the best offensive situation when it comes to quarterback, so there’s some downside risk. Add in the off-the-field issue lurking, and there are question marks. That’s offset by McCoy being one of the best backs in the league in recent years, which is why his price is worth the gamble outside the top 10 at the position.
TIER 4
Christian McCaffrey
Melvin Gordon
Kenyan Drake
Jerick McKinnon
Jordan Howard
Joe Mixon
This is the upside, but question mark tier. Christian McCaffrey is expected to take over in Carolina, after being a PPR monster a year ago. But he didn’t look great as a rusher, and there’s no guarantee that he will handle the increased workload and prevent a committee situation on the ground with C.J. Anderson. But if he does get more than 200 carries, he will be a boom.
Melvin Gordon was 5th in RB rankings a year ago, but he’s unlikely to duplicate the 4 receiving touchdowns he had (which all came in the first six weeks) that helped contribute to that. He’s steady, but his career yards per carry is 3.8. He’ll get enough touches to be a quality RB2, though, for your squad.
Kenyan Drake has great upside and looked explosive down the stretch. Will it translate? The team brought in Frank Gore as the veteran but that feels like the Arian Foster situation from a few years ago. He shouldn’t prevent Drake from being productive.
Jordan Howard would be higher if he added more receptions; he’s been a yardage monster the last two years and will be a boom if the Bears offense takes the next step. Joe Mixon should be the workhorse this year for the Bengals and will try to improve on last year’s campaign, where he had 913 yards from scrimmage but only 4 touchdowns.
TIER 5
Derrick Henry
Alex Collins
Isaiah Crowell
Jay Ajayi
This group consists of guys who should be lead backs but don’t have the history to say they are locks. At their best, they can rack up rushing attempts and hit workhorse status if the team is leading. If the team is trailing, though, they may give you some lean weeks. Derrick Henry is expected to take over the lead role, but I wouldn’t rule out Dion Lewis having a say in that. Alex Collins looks like the guy in Baltimore–he averaged 17 rush attempts a game after becoming the starter last year.
Crowell moves to the Jets, where he should be the feature back. His value is going to depend on how Sam Darnold (or one of the veterans) plays at QB. He scored only two touchdowns last year for the 0-16 Browns, after having 7 rushing touchdowns and over 1,200 yards from scrimmage the year before, and is still only 25. Jay Ajayi scored only one touchdown and averaged 10 rushes a game for Philadelphia after being traded a year ago. I expect his role will increase in year 2.
TIER 6
Ronald Jones II
Royce Freeman
Derrius Guice
Mark Ingram
Dion Lewis
Tevin Coleman
Chris Carson
Carlos Hyde
Lamar Miller
Marlon Mack
Sony Michel
Kerryon Johnson
Marshawn Lynch
This is the tier for rookie running backs who are expected to be lead backs (but we are not sure just how much of a platoon it will be), along with high end veteran committee backs and other veterans who are looking for a bounce back.
Jones, Freeman, and Guice are my choices for rookie running back with the clearest path to success in the non-Saquon division. [Update: Washington confirmed that Derrius Guice tore his ACL and will be out for the year]. Rashaad Penny is being drafted highly as well but I’m not so sure he’s going to move Chris Carson out of anything more than a committee.
Ingram, Dion Lewis, and Tevin Coleman can be productive options (well, when Ingram gets back from suspension) and if there is an injury, could be top 10 guys. Marlon Mack is a guy to watch in Indianapolis. Kerryon Johnson will try to reverse a decade of running back frustration in Detroit.
TIER 7
Matt Breida
Rashaad Penny
Devontae Booker
Jamaal Williams
Doug Martin
Rex Burkhead
Bilal Powell
Nick Chubb
TJ Yeldon
Giovani Bernard
Austin Ekeler
This is the tier for backs who could at least be in a committee situation and move into a lead role based on performance. Jamaal Williams is the lowest “lead guy” on here because how the carries will be divided in a 3-way split (after Aaron Jones returns from suspension) is uncertain. Rex Burkhead and Devontae Booker stand to benefit if the rookies in front of them struggle or can’t stay on the field because of blocking issues. Nick Chubb would appear to be behind the veteran Hyde early but could carve more time.
TIER PPR BACK
Tarik Cohen
Theo Riddick
James White
Chris Thompson
Duke Johnson
Ty Montgomery
I put these guys in a separate tier. They are roughly in Tier 7, and maybe Tier 8 depending on the player, if you are in a league that is not PPR. In a PPR league, they can be flex options and similar to Tier 6. All of these guys should get the majority of their production in receiving yards and receptions.
TIER 8
Aaron Jones
D’Onta Foreman
CJ Anderson
Corey Clement
Latavius Murray
Peyton Barber
Nyheim Hines
Javorius Allen
Frank Gore
Spencer Ware
Malcolm Brown
These are your lottery ticket guys. They could carve more time and some will be in committees. An injury could open an opportunity. Keep an eye on news on D’Onta Foreman coming back from an Achilles injury. If he is healthy, he has a chance to overtake Lamar Miller as the season progresses.