Fantasy Football Strategy: Drafting Out of the Last Slot in a Snake Draft

Congratulations, you have the final pick in the first round of your fantasy draft. This is a spot that comes with plenty of disadvantages. You miss out on the top guys. Unless your team does a “third round reversal” everyone else also has three players before you, and there are usually around 25-30 clear guys near the top. You have to wait a long time between making back-to-back picks, and have to plan for runs and can watch your sleepers get plucked.

But you also have a chance to zig when others zag and don’t have to just meekly play their game. The 2018 fantasy drafts should start to bear a stronger resemblance to the drafts that some of us veterans used to have back in the 2000’s, when running backs dominated the early portion of the draft and you could pair up two of the top 5 wide receivers.

So I’m going to lay out my 2018 strategy for conducting a fantasy football draft out of a late spot. For purposes of this post, I will use the 12th spot in a 12-team PPR league, and use the average draft position data from Fantasy Pros for PPR leagues to decide who might still be available. I’ll select 2 QBs, 5 RBs, 5 WRs, 2 TEs.

1st/2nd Round: RB Leonard Fournette, WR Julio Jones (3rd option: WR Michael Thomas)

Fournette is going a little lower in PPR formats than in others, but I think this is the one chance for running back value, because I still have him above some of the backs going ahead of him on average in PPR. His historical comps were good the next year with some big breakouts, and he’s an immense talent. He missed 3 games last year and you know where he finished in PPR points for running back? 9th. By PPR points per game, he was 7th. He was a top 5 pick who was successful as a rookie, missed 3 games, and is just 23, and he’s 9th RB off the board? Take him if there.

If not, I’d go two wide receivers. I’ll take Julio Jones, who this time last year was going 3rd or 4th overall, but only scored 3 touchdowns while having over 1,400 yards receiving (the most extreme yards to touchdown split of the last 30 years). He hasn’t had double digit TDs since his 2nd year but still averages nearly half a touchdown per game played. A touchdown regression toward his career averages makes him a great pick in this spot.

I’d take Michael Thomas if Fournette was gone, and go with two top wide receivers.

3rd/4th Round: WR Demaryius Thomas, WR Brandin Cooks (WR Juju Smith-Schuster or WR Doug Baldwin if he falls here)

If I do get Fournette, I’m definitely going with two wide receivers here because I want to lock up two more of the top 20 guys and have a leg up (along with Julio) at the position over the teams I am chasing, rather than chase them at both running back and receiver.

I’d love if someone like Doug Baldwin fell here (he’s currently right around an ADP of 34). With the guys who are typically available, there are still plenty of options. You could go Jarvis Landry, Demaryius Thomas, Brandin Cooks, Juju Smith-Schuster, or Allen Robinson here. I’ll take Thomas, who I think will benefit from improved QB play going from Siemian to Keenum, and Cooks moving into the high-powered Rams offense. But there are plenty of options and right after this round those options are going to all be gone. This is the spot to start the run at this WR tier and not miss out on it.

5th/6th Round: RB Sony Michel and RB Rex Burkhead (RB Tevin Coleman)

What? Am I crazy? But we are supposed to be afraid of the Patriots’ running back situation in perpetuity. Last year, New England was 2nd (behind the Saints) in overall RB production in PPR. Over the last five years, the top running back in New England has been 15th in average PPR points per game, while the 2nd running back (non-James White role position) has been 37th. And yes, the uncertainty of identifying who that is scares people off. But this is the range that both these guys are going to go, and New England didn’t use a 1st round pick at the position to have Sony Michel be behind Jeremy Hill.

Heck, some weeks when the top 4 are on byes, I can use both in a flex option and not worry about who scores the TDs. And I’m insured against injury because if one is out, the other becomes a stronger play. Michel has more upside so I’d take him over Burkhead but I’m willing to take both and see which one ends up in the top 20 in the end-of-year rankings, ahead of several of the guys being drafted in front of them.

7th/8th Round: QB Andrew Luck, RB Carlos Hyde (QB Matt Stafford, RB Chris Carson)

I’ve been willing to wait on quarterback until now because there is so much value in these mid-rounds at the position, with plenty of upside. If Andrew Luck is there, I’m taking him here. Yes, he missed all of last year, but he has been so productive when he plays that there’s great upside here, which is what you need in this draft slot. If Luck is gone, I’m more than happy to take Stafford, who has been undervalued for the last several years and keeps being very productive.

At running back, if I can get a starting back in Hyde, that’s gravy. He’s currently going at RB37, with rookie Nick Chubb at RB39. The list of Fantasy Football Sleepers from the last decade is filled with teams that had rookie running backs in the top two, but it has just as often been the non-rookie who proved to be a boom. If Hyde is gone, I’m jumping on Chris Carson in this spot. Carson is in a similar spot, and being drafted way behind rookie Rashaad Penny and as a backup even though he has been the one taking first team reps and even though Penny is now out with a broken finger for a few weeks. I expect Carson to keep climbing the charts and be in this range.

9th/10th Round: TE David Njoku, QB Patrick Mahomes

I’m swinging for the fences. Wait, wrong sport. I’m taking a deep shot with this round of picks, and I need someone with a YOLO attitude and a big arm to do it. I’ll go with Patrick Mahomes in KC, moving into an offense where Alex Smith was QB4 last year. Mahomes has upside and will have top 5 weapons around him.

Meanwhile, I’ve waited at tight end. I’m not willing to pay the hefty price for Gronk and Kelce, and then there are some veterans who feel a little risky to me going way higher. When I broke down the tight end breakouts, a large number of them were 2nd year guys who were drafted in the early rounds, and had finished around TE20 the year before. David Njoku is primed to join them.

11th/12th Round: TE O.J. Howard, WR Mike Williams

And I’ll pair Njoku up with Howard, who was inside the Top 20 last year, was a Top 20 pick, and is going this late. He’s a physical freak. Yes, Cameron Brate is there and that’s the reason Howard is available here. But Brate played until halftime of the first preseason while Howard barely played. Which usage fits the mold of the guy likely to be featured more in 2018?

With the final pick here I’ll take a chance on Mike Williams. His rookie year was basically lost starting it on PUP and never working into a rhythm. But Hunter Henry is lost for the year, Gates is gone, and targets abound.

13th/14th Round RB Peyton Barber, Baltimore Ravens DST

FYI, right now, Peyton Barber is running with the starters and started the first preseason game ahead of Ronald Jones (and Jones had less than 10 yards on 8 carries). Barber finished the last 5 games a year ago, once the franchise finally went away from Doug Martin, with 78 rushes for 335 yards, and 12 receptions for 83 yards. He’s a deep sleeper but if Ronald Jones doesn’t work out, Barber could be big value. The last 7 years has produce more 2nd round picks that didn’t work out than did, from booms like Le’Veon Bell and Dalvin Cook to guys like Montee Ball, Ryan Williams, Christine Michael, Bishop Sankey and Ameer Abdullah.

15th/16th Round K Jake Elliott, WR Courtland Sutton

I’ll handcuff the Demaryius Thomas pick with Courtland Sutton, the rookie for the Broncos who has drawn high praise. With Thomas and Sanders both turning 31. It’s not a true handcuff because Sanders fell off more last year and is more likely to be replaced if Sutton starts making plays in the regular season.

Here is the roster coming out of the final slot:

QB Andrew Luck, Indianapolis
QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City
RB Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville
RB Sony Michel, New England
RB Rex Burkhead, New England
RB Carlos Hyde, Cleveland
RB Peyton Barber III, Tampa Bay
WR Julio Jones, Atlanta
WR Demaryius Thomas, Denver
WR Brandin Cooks, LA Rams
WR Mike Williams, LA Chargers
WR Courtland Sutton, Denver
TE David Njoku, Cleveland
TE O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay