Year in and year out, the most successful fantasy football GMs take the best available players when they pick, consistently find value in every round, and don’t reach for guys early. This 10-round list will help you minimize your risk, so make sure you guys create a “DO NOT DRAFT” list to have it handy during your draft.
This list is based off a combination of the consensus expert rankings and updated ADP from Fantasy Pros for a 12-team standard scoring snake draft:
1st Round: Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (9 in ranking, 9th in ADP)
I love Kareem Hunt because he helped me win two fantasy football leagues last year. He set the fantasy scene on fire as a rookie leading the NFL in rushing with 1,327 rushing yards. But, the name of the game is value. There are three things that scare me. Hunt missed time during OTAs and minicamp because of a hamstring injury. The Chiefs are getting a healthy Spencer Ware back (and adding Damien Williams instead of Charcandrick West), which will take away some of Hunt’s touches. Hunt saw 18 or fewer carries on 10 different occasions last season, so he was already not getting a workhorse number of carries anyway on a consistent basis. Given all of this, an ADP of 9 is too rich for my blood. However, if Hunt slips to the second round, make sure you scoop him up.
2nd Round: Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons (18 in ranking, 18 in ADP)
Freeman suffered sprains to both his MCL and PCL late last season. Also, Tevin Coleman steals a lot of Devonta’s touches, and word out of Atlanta is, Coleman is going to get even more touches this year. Lastly, expect the Falcons offense to open up the passing game more this season. If you are looking for a RB1 here, look elsewhere.
3rd Round: LeSean McCoy aka “Shady”, RB, Buffalo Bills (26 in ranking, 26 in ADP)
Besides all the off the field stuff going on with Shady, which is crazy in itself, he just turned 30. Decades of history are squarely stacked against 30 year old running backs. Not to mention, the Bills ran him into the ground with 287 carries last season. Only one person carried the ball more last year! Buffalo also has question marks at OLine and of course, QB. I’m staying away from Shady at all costs, in all my drafts.