Fantasy Football: The Player to Avoid in Each Round of Your Draft
By Vik Chokshi
Year in and year out, the most successful fantasy football GMs take the best available players when they pick, consistently find value in every round, and don’t reach for guys early. This 10-round list will help you minimize your risk, so make sure you guys create a “DO NOT DRAFT” list to have it handy during your draft.
This list is based off a combination of the consensus expert rankings and updated ADP from Fantasy Pros for a 12-team standard scoring snake draft:
1st Round: Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (9 in ranking, 9th in ADP)
I love Kareem Hunt because he helped me win two fantasy football leagues last year. He set the fantasy scene on fire as a rookie leading the NFL in rushing with 1,327 rushing yards. But, the name of the game is value. There are three things that scare me. Hunt missed time during OTAs and minicamp because of a hamstring injury. The Chiefs are getting a healthy Spencer Ware back (and adding Damien Williams instead of Charcandrick West), which will take away some of Hunt’s touches. Hunt saw 18 or fewer carries on 10 different occasions last season, so he was already not getting a workhorse number of carries anyway on a consistent basis. Given all of this, an ADP of 9 is too rich for my blood. However, if Hunt slips to the second round, make sure you scoop him up.
2nd Round: Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons (18 in ranking, 18 in ADP)
Freeman suffered sprains to both his MCL and PCL late last season. Also, Tevin Coleman steals a lot of Devonta’s touches, and word out of Atlanta is, Coleman is going to get even more touches this year. Lastly, expect the Falcons offense to open up the passing game more this season. If you are looking for a RB1 here, look elsewhere.
3rd Round: LeSean McCoy aka “Shady”, RB, Buffalo Bills (26 in ranking, 26 in ADP)
Besides all the off the field stuff going on with Shady, which is crazy in itself, he just turned 30. Decades of history are squarely stacked against 30 year old running backs. Not to mention, the Bills ran him into the ground with 287 carries last season. Only one person carried the ball more last year! Buffalo also has question marks at OLine and of course, QB. I’m staying away from Shady at all costs, in all my drafts.
4th Round: Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders (33 in ranking, 36 in ADP)
Cooper was a huge bust last season, and I see more of the same this year. Granted QB Derek Carr was injured for a bit, but that does not change Amari’s ability to catch the ball. Two of the last three seasons, Cooper has led the league in drop rate (17.2 percent). Jon Grudenis again taking over as the Raiders head coach, and brings a new offense along with him. It will take some time for Carr, Cooper and Co. to get a handle on it. Gruden also wants to run the ball more with Marshawn Lynch and Doug Martin. Lastly, the Raiders also added Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant to their WR core, so the overall targets will be spread out more in Oakland compared to last season. Buyer beware.
5th Round: Jimmy Graham, TE, Green Bay Packers (51 in ranking, 52 in ADP)
I can hear it now, “Graham had 10 touchdowns last year with Russell Wilson, don’t you think he will smoke that with Aaron Rodgers?” The reality of it is, the New Orleans version of Graham is not walking through that door. Injuries have taken a toll on him, and he just can not separate like he used to. Of course, he will be on the field for red zone plays, but do you want your fantasy week to depend on Graham catching a touchdown? There were 16 tight ends that finished with more yards than Jimmy in 2017. So if he scores no touchdowns, no points. Rodgers or not, Graham is a very risky pick in the fifth round. Play it safe and either stream TEs, or get better value at the position later in your draft.
6th round: Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (64 in ranking, 66 in ADP)
Huge Wentz fan, and it is awesome to see how hard he has worked to get back on the field since his injury. But, that doesn’t change the fact that he tore his ACL in December. The Eagles are not going to rush back their MVP-level QB, especially when they have a great backup in Nick Foles. That is why they paid Foles to retain him in the first place. Not a knock against Wentz, just think the 6th round is a reach due to his comeback situation.
7th Round: Carlos Hyde, RB, Cleveland Browns (73 in ranking, 73 in ADP)
Even though Hyde is RB1 in Cleveland, the backfield is crowded. He’ll have rookie Nick Chubb pushing him, and Duke Johnson taking away all of the receptions. Carlos also needs to prove he can stay healthy and produce in consecutive seasons.
8th Round: Jordy Nelson, WR, Oakland Raiders (85 in ranking, 87 in ADP)
As you can see above in my Cooper breakdown, I am not a fan of the Raiders WR fantasy situation. Couple that with Nelson turning 33, coming off yet another injury, and in a new offensive system…that spells more BUST than BOOM.
9th Round: Ben Roethlisstrongerger, QB, Pittsstrongurgh Steelers (110 in ranking, 101 in ADP)
With the departure of Todd Haley, there will be a transition period with new OC Randy Fichtner. Big Ben is also a year older (36), and took some beatings last year. Fantasy wise, his home vs. away splits are staggering. Ben is averaging fewer than 14 points per road game the past four seasons. Because of that, he’s been a top-10 QB just twice in the past six years. QB is a deeper position than most think. Look elsewhere.
10th Round: Nelson Agholor, WR, Philadelphia Eagles (110 in ranking, 111 in ADP)
On the surface, Agholor had a terrific fantasy season last year, finishing as the 23rd-best WR in PPR leagues. But, if you dig a little deeper, you will see that was mostly due to him scoring 8 TDs. I am not taking anything away from him, as that was big-time, but in terms of fantasy, we want volume in all of our players. Overall, he finished with just 62 catches on 95 targets and a measly 768 yards. And, with Wentz coming back from injury, there is likely an Agholor touchdown regression coming.