Fantasy Football: 5 Rookie WRs Who Fit the Profile of Breakout Candidates
By Henry McKenna
When considering historical success of rookies at the receiver position, there’s one common denominator. The best rookie wideouts were taken in the first three rounds of the NFL draft.
Not a wild revelation, I know.
The 20 best rookie receiver performances in fantasy football from 2008 to 2017 came from 19 players drafted in those top three rounds. The two exceptions were Mike Williams, a Buccaneers ‘ fourth-rounder, and Tyreek Hill, a player whose talent warranted early consideration but his draft stock suffered due to domestic violence charges.
Beyond that glaring correlation, there were a few commonalities. They played with good quarterbacks, who tended to chuck the ball a lot. But that offense was lacking in receiving options (and, in many cases, running options) Naturally, the rookies generally jumped into a role as one of the two top targets in their passing offense.
Keeping those factors in mind, here are five rookie wide receivers who appear are in the right position to excel in 2018.
Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott has averaged 3,495.5 passing yards and 22.5 touchdowns per season in his first two years in the league. If he can keep that up, then Cowboys receivers will continue to play beneficiary. It’s just that the receiver and tight end positions aren’t stocked with talent. Because of that, Gallup has drawn hype, and has quickly jumped into the discussion to be the team’s top option at receiver.
In two seasons at Colorado State, he had 2,685 yards and 21 touchdowns. That’s an absurd amount of production, even when considering CSU isn’t in a power-five conference. If Gallup can get on the field early, there’s no reason why he won’t get targeted often.
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers
The Panthers present an immediate opportunity for Moore to start. Devin Funchess appears to be emerging as a legit wideout. But he’s a WR1a that needs a WR1b. Moore’s direct competition, Torrey Smith, is a known entity. He draws pass-interference calls and stretches the defense. But he isn’t the type of pass-catcher that an offense should count on.
Moore, on the other hand, could prove trustworthy.
Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey are good red zone threats, which might mean that Moore, at 6-foot, isn’t going to rack up touchdowns. Even at Maryland, Moore never had more than eight touchdowns. Those totals come with an asterisk — the Terps only threw for 15 touchdown. So that’s a ratio fantasy owners can get behind.
While Moore underwhelmed statistically in a unproductive college offense, his athleticism was off the charts during the combine. He ran a 4.42-second 40-yard dash with a 39-inch vertical leap and a 6.95-second 3-cone drill.
When dropped into the Panthers offense, Moore could surprise in his rookie season.
Tre'Quan Smith, New Orleans Saints
The Saints offense is a good place to be. Drew Brees, Sean Payton and Michael Thomas are good people to have around.
The competition for the No. 2 receiver role is between Smith and Cameron Meredith with veteran Ted Ginn lurking. Meredith was a 2016 fantasy darling and is a feel-good-story-waiting-to-happen. He missed all of last season with an ACL tear. Perhaps because many fantasy experts are rooting for Meredith’s resurgence, Smith has flown under the radar.
However, he was a third-round pick who had 1,171 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2017 at UCF. He has begun to emerge in preseason, and, according to Pro Football Focus, looks like a perfect fit in New Orleans offense. Brees has been a part of two of the biggest rookie wide receiver seasons in recent times, with Marques Colston and Michael Thomas. A spot as Brees’ No. 2 receiver could make for a meteoric rise.
Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons had a down offensive year in 2017 after an offensive boom in 2016. Their 2018 season should land in between the two with Ridley serving as the No. 2 receiver.
Julio Jones will make Ridley’s life easy in the first few weeks. Teams would be silly not to double Jones, especially considering how weak the Falcons are at tight end. While Jones might get between 125 and 175 targets, somehow, Ridley could still see a big volume. As mentioned, the Falcons tight ends aren’t great. At receiver, Ridley’s only competition is Mohamad Sanu, who has never dazzled.
Ridley, one of two first-round receivers in the 2018 draft, should excel in Atlanta.
Anthony Miller, Chicago Bears
His presence on this list is based more on a hunch than him fitting the profile perfectly. He was a second-round pick. He checks the first box. He technically has a veteran quarterback in Mitch Trubisky, entering his second year. But Trubisky hasn’t shown much veteran savvy yet, nor has he aired out the ball a great deal. The Bears attempted the NFL’s fewest passes in 2017.
So we’ve gotten that out of the way. Here is what’s to like about Miller. In his junior season at Memphis, he had 95 receptions for 1,434 yards and 14 touchdowns. During training camp, he caught the attention of Phil Savage, former NFL general manager and Senior Bowl director. Savage predicted Miller would be an immediate contributor.
As for the positional competition, Miller sat out the third preseason game with the starters while Kevin White and Taylor Gabriel played. Miller and Trubisky proved to have enough rapport in the previous two games to the point where Miller seems to already have locked up the No. 2 spot.
So the only question with Miller is how much volume he’ll get in the Bears passing offense. Other than that caveat, he looks like a play who could boom if Chicago’s offense makes a leap in Matt Nagy’s first year as head coach.