Khalil Mack Effect: How the Trade Affected the Raiders and Bears Gambling Odds

The Chicago Bears shocked the NFL world Saturday by acquiring Khalil Mack from the Oakland Raiders via a blockbuster trade.

Full disclosure, I am a Bears fan, so I have been dancing ever since we traded for the best pass rusher in the game. As Bruno Mars said, “Don’t believe me, just watch”:

Bears fans, here is another 11 minute video that will get you hyped!

Mack’s former teammates have been understandably on the opposite spectrum, upset and in shock that one their franchise players is gone:

Now that the dust has settled, let’s take a look at the how the trade affects both teams from a gambling perspective…the “Khalil Mack effect”.

Pat Morrow, Head Oddsmaker at Bovada:

" The Bears move from 6.5 to 7 wins. Raiders go from 8 to 7.5. "

Jeff Sherman, Westgate Las Vegas:

"Raiders from 20/1 to 40/1 and Bears from 100/1 to 40/1 for Super Bowl Season wins (total) Raiders from 8 Under -140 to 7.5 -110. Bears go from 6.5 over -160 to 7.5 Under -130."

The trade had a significant ripple effect for both teams, but especially the Bears, whose odds have jumped considerably, most notably their Super Bowl odds. Here are the overall consensus moves from various books (Vegas and offshore):

Chicago Bears:

Season win total: 6.5 to 7.5
Super Bowl odds: 100/1 to 40/1
Conference odds: 50/1 to 25/1
Division odds: 12/1 to 8/1
Week 1 at GB: +8 to +7.5

Raiders were naturally on the flip side:

Season win total: 8.0 to 7.5
Super Bowl odds: 20/1 to 40/1
Conference odds: 10/1 to 20/1
Division odds: 7/2 to 4/1
Week 1 vs. LAR: +3.5 to +4.5

Bovada has also set Mack’s sack total prop at 11, which is in line with his production over the last two seasons.

Teams that can protect the quarterback and attack him all the same, are the most successful year in and year out. With the tandem of Leonard Floyd and Mack, the Bears should now be able to get after the QB, in a division filled with great ones. Just how elite is Mack? He leads the NFL in total pressures since 2015:

Starting Sunday night, we will see if this trade helps the Bears win more games and Bears backers win more bets. FWIW, I will be on the Bears +7.5.